GS Rates MarketStrats G4 govt bonds weekly supply

GS MarketStrats - G4 govt bonds weekly supply 18 Sep 2026 Rates MarketStrats · Goldman Sachs · FICC & Equities 18 Sep 2026

In this week's edition of the G4 government bonds weekly supply commentary, Goldman Sachs reviews upcoming supply over the next couple of weeks and the implications of the BoE QT announcement for gilts supply.

• Upcoming week: total G4 government-bond duration issuance, net of central-bank purchases and sales, is estimated at around $93mn/bp, above $66mn/bp this week and about 1.1x the 2025 weekly average. Cash issuance is estimated at $249bn versus $79bn last week.

• EGBs: duration issuance around $21mn/bp (~0.8x the 2025 weekly average), with Germany and Italy auctions and potential EGB syndications; cash issuance around $29bn (€26bn).

• UK gilts: duration issuance around $3mn/bp (~0.5x average), with only a 5-year auction scheduled; cash issuance around $7bn (£5bn).

• USTs: duration issuance net of buybacks around $66mn/bp (~1.6x average), with 2-year, 5-year and 7- year auctions; net cash issuance around $208bn.

• JGBs: duration issuance net of BoJ purchases around $3mn/bp (~0.3x average), with only a 5–11-year liquidity-enhancement operation; net cash issuance around $4bn (¥0.65tn).

• Week after: supply is expected to drop, with total duration issuance around $50mn/bp, primarily because no UST auctions are scheduled.

The BoE announced a major revamp to its QT program at the September MPC meeting: £120bn of longer- dated bonds will never be sold; £222bn of gilts maturing through 2034 will passively roll off; and £146bn maturing between 2035–49 will be sold to the DMO at a proposed pace of about £20bn per year. There will be no active QT sales between now and April 2027, when the active-QT decision will be finalised.