Hong Kong Tracker Softened housing volume but resilient pricing. Office recovery broadening to non central districts. Retail...

Equity Research 21 September 2026 | 7:58PM HKT

Softened housing volume but resilient pricing. Office recovery broadening to non-central districts. Retail rents tracking behind

This graphic-rich “tracker” product summarizes our latest views and operational Simon Cheung, CFA | trends in our Hong Kong coverage universe across the Retail, Office, Residential, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Financials and Insurance industries, as well as corporate activities. Residential Thomas Wang transaction volume retreated and stabilized at lower levels over the past 2-3 months | after China tightened capital control in July but prices have held up +12.5% ytd. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Office market recovery has started to broaden out to selective non-Central districts Melissa Kuang, CFA | (e.g., Admiralty, HK East), as retail rent also stabilized since June though tracking Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte behind our expectation at -1.5% ytd. Despite concern over the impact of higher US rates, there remains abundant liquidity in HK with steady +10% yoy growth in bank Alpha Wang | deposit balance. The government also announced the 2026 Policy Address in Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

conjunction with the inaugural HK Five-Year Plan (see our report on Sept 17). More Leah Pan | specifically: Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Zhaoheng Chen n Residential: Since China’s State Council issued Decree No.837 tightening | individual offshore investment effective from July 1st, HK’s residential Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

transaction volume reversed its strong momentum from +42% yoy in 1H26 to Simone Chen | -26% yoy in July-Aug, with greater impact seen in mass-market segments for Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. units priced below HK$20mn (-20-30% yoy) vs. luxury segment priced above Wayne Wang HK$20mn (+6% yoy). The number of monthly primary transactions also dropped | Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte from an average of 2k units in 1H26 to 768 in July, then bounced back to 928 in Aug supported by the strong sell-through of CRLand’s new-launched project, The Sterling I in Cheung Sha Wan. Nevertheless, housing prices remained resilient and increased by another ~1% since end-June till mid-Sept as developers we cover (e.g., SHKP, Henderson, Sino Land) all signaled no intention to cut prices. As shown in Exhibit 15, selling prices of new project launches remained quite stable. By developer, SHKP continued to lead by securing ~HK$21bn contracted sales or ~16% market share in 8M26, followed by Henderson (~12%), Wheelock (8%) then NWD (6%). In terms of buyer mix, per Centaline data which captures transactions with buyers’ last names in mandarin pinyin, ML Chinese accounted for 38%/29% of HK’s housing transaction value/volume, further increased from 34%/23% in 1Q26. As more buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach in near term, rental demand has picked up again driving +3% rental increase in Jun-Aug adding up to +6.6% ytd per Centa-City Rental Index (CRI). Leading developers

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Goldman Sachs Hong Kong Tracker

have become more active in landbanking, with the recent successful tenders of the Hung Shui Kiu / Ha Tsuen pilot area (3k+ residential units) in Northern Metropolis to a cross-sector consortium (see our report on Sep 2) and MTRC’s Tuen Mun A16 Station Package 2 (~5.5k units) to SHKP (see our report on Sep 4). On Sept 15th, US Fed announced a 25bps rate hike as expected but HK major banks have maintained their prime rates unchanged at 5-5.25%. This perhaps reflects their relatively stable funding costs with 1-month HIBOR remaining low at 2.9%. For home users, every 25bps rate hike would in theory increase monthly payments for 25-30 years mortgages by ~3%, all…