Housing and Mortgage Monitor Florida finds its healing power

Credit Strategy Research 18 September 2026 | 12:00PM EDT

Florida finds its healing power

Base effects from a weak 2H’2025 could provide a Arun Manohar Exhibit 1: The unseasonal weakness in | technical boost to year-over-year HPA in the coming HPA in 2H’2025 could provide an Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC months optical boost to year-over-year HPA Ben Shumway metrics in the coming months if 2026 | Home price appreciation (HPA) generally follows a consistent HPA follows historical seasonal Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC patterns seasonal pattern throughout the year. In most years, Neth Karunamuni Cumulative HPA by calendar year | cumulative HPA accelerates sharply during the spring and 8% Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC early summer months, then begins to moderate and largely 7%

levels off as the market moves into the fall and winter. 6%

However, during the second half of 2025, the housing 4%

market experienced steeper-than-normal seasonal price 2%

declines (Exhibit 1). This unseasonal softness was driven by 1%

a combination of a rising unemployment backdrop at the -1% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

time and weak consumer confidence. If HPA follows more Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Bloomberg, Goldman normal calendar patterns this year and due to the Sachs Global Investment Research comparison period (2H’2025) representing a depressed Florida housing market showing early signs of recovery baseline, YoY HPA figures in the latter half of 2026 could as the pace of home price decline moderates optically appear stronger, even if actual month-over-month price growth is flat or minimal, potentially reaching over When market participants discuss the US housing market, 2.5% by year-end 2026. the focus invariably falls on the housing markets of Florida and Texas where home prices have been declining on a year-over-year basis for nearly two years. More recently, however, there have been early signs of improvement, especially in Florida. Year-over-year HPA in Florida (based

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Goldman Sachs Housing and Mortgage Monitor

Housing Forecasts and Key Charts 9

Economic growth remains positive year over year 10

US housing affordability is still poor 11

Home sales volume has fallen 12

Supply of completed homes remains constrained 13

34% of new GSE purchase mortgages have DTI above 43% 14

Homeownership rates have ticked down in Q22026 15

Sequential home price growth has slowed 16

Most US metros are seeing home price growth stabilize 17

Household balance sheet metrics remain resilient 18

Subprime auto ABS losses have grown 19

2.2% of mortgaged properties have negative equity 20

30-year FNMA prepayment rates remain at low levels 21

Conventional MBS prepayment rates decreased for higher coupons in July vs. June 22

High coupon Ginnie Mae prepayments decreased month-on-month 23

About 4% of mortgage borrowers are in-the-money for refinancing 24

The Federal Reserve’s agency MBS assets remain below $2.0 trillion 25

Agency MBS valuations have improved recently 26