India Watch Monsoon Tracker In the tail end but no signs of pickup

India Watch Monsoon Tracker: In the tail-end but no signs of pickup

Seasonal deficit holds around 15% below normal 18 September 2026 Corrected

Following a status quo maintained in rainfall trends in the first few days of September, GEM Economics rainfall further weakened in September with the overall rains now 15% below normal- Asia | India one of the weakest monsoon seasons in the last decade. The month is so far tracking Rahul Bajoria 22% below normal rains and over the last two weeks, rainfall remained 28% below India & ASEAN Economist BofAS India normal. Notably, IOD has swung back to positive territory and El Nino conditions as monitored by the southern oscillation index have worsened at the margin. With monsoon withdrawal now underway and weather indicators offering only modest support, the Smriti Mehra India Economist scope for a meaningful rebound in rainfall appears limited, suggesting little change to BofAS India the seasonal outcome from current levels.

Rainfall shortfall persists across regions Rainfall activity continued to remain weak over the last two weeks. Among the regions, Glossary southern and eastern India continue to indicate large deficit with both recording over CPI: Consumer price index 25% of below normal rains while northwest and Central India have been better than national average. At the sub-division level, 17 reported normal rainfall, down from 19 in IMD: Indian meteorological department Aug end while the remaining 19 were recorded deficient rains The persistence of rainfall WPI: Wholesale Price Index deficits across key agricultural regions warrants close monitoring particularly soil yoy: Year over Year moisture levels and reservoir replenishment which will have bearing on winter crop. LPA: Long period average Reservoirs levels at -21% yoy; kharif sowing at -1 % yoy FY: Financial Year (April to March) With weak rainfall, reservoir levels saw little change at 71% of full use till 17 Sep, th SW: Southwest remaining 21% below last year’s level. Kharif sowing remains resilient, with ~99% of the DMI: Dipole Mode Index normal area sown as of 11 September. This only remains slightly below last year's level IOD: Indian Ocean Dipole (at -1.3% yoy) implying limited risk to summer crop. NOAA: National Oceanic and Exhibit 1: Actual and Normal Rainfall in 2026 Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Dept Monsoon has been deficient by about 15% in recent weeks of Commerce Actual rainfall (mm) Normal NW: Northwest 18.0 WoW- Week on Week 16.0 W13: Week thirteen BofA Global Research Reports 6.0 Title: Subtitle Primary Date 4.0 Author Published 2.0 0.0 India Viewpoint: Inflation Rahul 09 1-Jun 1-Jul 31-Jul 30-Aug 29-Sep is back: Three drivers of a Bajoria September new price cycle 2026 Data till 17 Sep; Source: BofA Global Research, IMD, CEIC BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH India Viewpoint: Back to Rahul 08 School: Growth visibility Bajoria September restored, policy balance 2026 next

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Exhibit 2: Southern Oscillation Index & Indian Ocean Dipole Index Exhibit 3: Deviation from Normal rainfall (%): Monthly Indian Ocean dipole turned back to positive zone September now reports 22% below normal rainfall

SOI (ºC) IOD (ºC, RHS) Actual Positive IOD and El-Niño range Normal Deviation (% from normal, RHS) Negative IOD and El-Niño range - -May 24-May 1-Jun 9-Jun 17-Jun 25-Jun 3-Jul 0 -50 11-Jul 19-Jul 27-Jul 4-Aug 12-Aug 20-Aug Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 28-Aug 5-Sep 13-Sep

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia; BofA Global Research Sep 17 data available so far; Source: BofA Global Research, CEIC BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 4: Progress of SW monsoon (cumulative rainfall till date) Exhibit 5: Spatial monsoon distribution (% deviation from normal) Southern and East India continue to see weak rains 47% of all sub-divisions reported normal rainfall till W16…