IntradayFXView

Intraday FX View FX & Precious Metals Trading | 21 August 2026

This publication was prepared by Bank J Safra Sarasin (BJSS) Trading department. The views or ideas expressed herein are those of the desk and/or the author only. The publication cannot be considered as investment research or a research recommendation for regulatory purposes. Please find further important information at the end of this document.

BBDXY (1191.10) Yesterday Bessent went on CNBC to comment further on the increased buy back of long term treasuries. He repeated what was in the statement the 4bio in the minimum that treasury can do, and the amount could be larger. Bessent also indicated that there will be an announcement to make with regards to “fiscal initiative”, maybe into early next week. 40T of debt suggest that incentive to do a significant fiscal measure is unlikely. Looks like the heavy work will need to go to FED again maybe with restarting on reinvestments of matured securities (Where K Warsh is ag an increasing balance sheet) or a rate hike where markets do not fully price until Jan 2027. If K Warsh and the committee can not deliver the steps for the “price stability” that they want to deliver, USD should move lower. EUR/USD (1.1690) As we prepare the report, EU Aug preliminary PMIs start to come out a bit worse than expected. Still we think the diver- gence will help move EUR move higher. 1.1830 should be the initial target for the short term.Large option expiry for today is 1.15 (Mixed C/P) in 7.26bio. This may provide some supply but it is 1.7% ITM to have a big effect. USD/CHF (0.8003) Lower rates for the long end of the UST curve drove down USDCHF sharply down. Still moves to low 0.79 in usdchf should provide CHF shorts vs Non USD as other carry trade options emerge. No significantly large option expiry today. 0.79 C/P (0.7b) and 0.80 C/P (0.7b) strikes comes into play for next Thursday and Friday respectively. GBP/USD (1.3642) GBP definitely making the most of the USD weakness where it is testing 1.3670 resistance and a break may pave the way towards 1.3750/60. But we still keep our negative bias in GBP and look for downside moves. No significantly large option expiry today. 1.3550 C (0.7b) and 1.3700 C (0.7b) strikes comes into play for next Thursday and Friday respectively. USD/JPY (158.75) July CPI released today with headline and core measures inching close to 2.0% level. Markets are pricing around 80% of a rate hike for September meeting. Better expression of JPY strength may be via CHFJPY short, with keeping a stop above 200. Some option expiries today but, significant one to the spot is the 159 C/P (0.9bio) strike. AUD/USD (0.7150) AUD$ not getting the same interest post Bessent as its pairs so far, probably latest employment data weighing on the sentiment. Still lower USD rates, Higher metals should help AUD to grind higher. Only largeish option expiry for today is 0.71 C/P (0.5b). For next Thursday a large cluster of options 0.7045 to 0.7059 (about 2.2b) comes close. USD/CAD (1.3762) USD/CAD broke below 1.3846 200 DMA on Bessent news making just over 1 BF move since yesterday morning. Would revisit the idea to buy 3 month topside with Call USD Put Cad 25D (1.3952 strike) . Couple of option expires above the spot, 1.39 C/P (0.6b) and around 1.41 C/P (1.2b).

Important Information This publication has been prepared by Bank J. Safra Sarasin Ltd (the “Bank”) for information purposes only. It is not the result of financial research conducted. Therefore, the “Directives on the Independence of Financial Research” of the Swiss Bankers Association do not apply to this publication. Any views, opinions and commentaries in this publication (together the “Views”) are the Views of the authors and may deviate from those other departments within the Bank. The Bank may make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the Views expressed herein. It may also provide advisory or other services to companies mentioned in this publication resulting in a conflict of interest that could affect the Bank’s objectivity. While the Bank has taken steps to avoid or disclose such conflicts, it cannot make any representation in…