Japan June Wages Growth Maintains High Level of Over 3

Economics Research 5 August 2026 | 9:53AM JST

Japan: June Wages: Growth Maintains High Level of Over 3%; Real Wages Positive for Sixth Consecutive Month

BOTTOM LINE: Nominal cash wage growth accelerated slightly to +3.4% yoy in June, Yuriko Tanaka | from +3.3% in May. Special wages, which account for over 40% of June wages, Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. increased by +3.5%. Overall basic wage growth accelerated to +3.4% yoy, from +3.0% in May. Basic wage growth for full-time workers (the main focus of shunto wage negotiations), on a “same sample” basis which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan, also accelerated to +2.9% in June (May: +2.5%). Real wages have maintained their positive trend since the beginning of the year.

n Nominal cash wage (yoy): Jun: +3.4%, May: +3.3% n Basic wage (yoy): Jun: +3.4%, May: +3.0% n Part-timers’ basic wage per hour (yoy): Jun: +4.3%, May: +5.0% n Overtime wage (yoy): Jun: +2.8%, May: +2.8% n Special wage (yoy): Jun: +3.5%, May: +7.4% n Real wage (yoy; deflated by CPI excluding imputed rent): Jun: +1.6%, May: +1.6%

Nominal cash wage growth accelerated slightly to +3.4% yoy in June, from +3.3% in May.

Special wages, which include summer bonuses and account for over 40% of June wages, increased by +3.5% yoy, contributing +1.5 pp to wage growth.

Basic wage growth for all workers accelerated to +3.4% yoy, from +3.0% in May. Basic wage growth for full-time workers, the target of base pay rise in shunto negotiations, maintained high growth at +3.6% (May: +3.6%). Basic wage growth for full-time workers on a “same sample” basis, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan, accelerated to +2.9% in June from +2.5% in May. An industry breakdown of basic wage growth on a “same sample” basis shows manufacturing at +3.0%, wholesale & retail trade at +3.1%, and medical & welfare services at +2.6%.

On a “same sample” basis, nominal cash wage growth accelerated sharply to +4.4% yoy, from +3.1% in May, driven by increases in basic and special wages.

In the final tabulation of the 2026 shunto wage agreements announced by JTUC-RENGO on July 3, the agreed base pay rise slowed slightly to 3.5% from 3.7% in 2025, but a high wage hike rate was maintained, and the gap between large and mid-sized enterprises narrowed. The wage hikes agreed upon in the shunto begin to

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be reflected from the May-June pay checks, and the basic wage growth in the June Monthly Labour Survey is consistent with the final shunto results.

Part-timers’ hourly wages slowed to +4.3% yoy in June, from +5.0% in May, but maintained high growth. In the shunto, wage hikes for part-timers’ hourly wages were agreed upon at a growth rate of 6.2%, exceeding last year’s rate (5.8%).

Real wages maintain positive trend since the beginning of the year: Real wages (nominal wages less the inflation rate based on the CPI excluding imputed rent) maintained their positive trend for the sixth consecutive month since the beginning of the year, printing at +1.6% yoy in June (May: +1.6%). Real wages deflated by the headline CPI also increased for the seventh consecutive month since December last year, printing at +1.7% yoy (May: +1.8%).*

Exhibit 1: Nominal Cash Wage Growth and Contribution (Same Sample Basis)

Percent change yoy; Contribution PP Percent change yoy; Contribution PP

Basic Wage Overtime Wage 4 4 Special Wage Total Cash Wage 2 2

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Nominal and Real Wage (Same Sample Basis)

Percent change yoy;3mma Percent change yoy;3mma 5 5 Same Sample Basis 4 Nominal Wage 4

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, MIC, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research