Kazakhstan Headline Inflation Fell to 10.3 yoy in July, in Line with Our Forecast but Below Consensus

Economics Research 3 August 2026 | 4:21PM BST

Kazakhstan: Headline Inflation Fell to 10.3%yoy in July, in Line with Our Forecast but Below Consensus

Bottom Line: Headline inflation fell from 10.4%yoy to 10.3%yoy in July, in line with Basak Edizgil | our forecast but below consensus expectation of 10.5%yoy. The decline was driven Goldman Sachs International by all CPI categories with Tenge strength in particular weighing on food and core Clemens Grafe goods inflation. In line with the pattern of the last few months, July saw localised fuel | and utility price hikes instead of a large industry-wide increase, which has been Goldman Sachs International

postponed further. Momentum in services inflation excluding energy eased notably, likely on the back of weaker domestic demand. This dynamic supports our view that the acceleration in services inflation in May-June reflected the pass-through from the VAT hike affecting some industries in June rather than a change in underlying drivers.

In our view, the easing in services inflation and the Tenge’s appreciation in recent months beyond the level the NBK deemed sustainable likely explain the Bank’s surprise 25bp cut last week. At the same time, the recent agreement between the NBK, the government, and Baiterek—the national investment agency—to limit Baiterek financing in H2 to large-scale investment projects could mitigate one of the key inflationary risks for the remainder of the year, implying downside risks to our inflation and rate outlook. However, we think the NBK will likely remain cautious in the near term given the risks around the implementation of fiscal consolidation, with the policy rate falling to 15.25% by end-2026.

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Monthly Inflation Breakdown Services includes energy

Kazakhstan CPI Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Headline, %yoy Headline, %mom (sa)

Food, beverages and tobacco, %yoy Food, beverages and tobacco, %mom (sa) Nonfood goods, %yoy Nonfood goods, %mom (sa) Services, %yoy Services, %mom (sa) Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Haver Analytics

Exhibit 1: Headline Inflation Fell in July Driven by Both Core and Non-Core Componetns 30 %yoy 30 %yoy Headline

Food, beverages and 25 tobacco 25 Nonfood goods

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research