latamweekly20260724

Latam Weekly: BCCh, BanRep, Fed, and Global Macro HIGHLIGHTS

GLOBAL ECONOMICS • We have a busy week ahead around the globe that includes BCCh, BanRep, Fed, BoJ, and BoE policy announcements, a bunch of key economic data in Latam and the G10, a full slate of corporate earnings releases, and likely more Middle East LATAM WEEKLY uncertainty. July 24, 2026 • Mexican Q2 GDP, Chile’s June macro flood, and mid-July Brazilian inflation are the Latam data highlights that will join a likely rate hold by the BCCh and an unknown Contributors magnitude hike by BanRep. Fujimori takes over as Peru’s president on Tuesday, with the country’s markets closed from Monday to Wednesday for the holidays. Juan Manuel Herrera, Director (Mexico) • In today’s report, the team in Mexico discusses recent economic trends, as growth momentum remains uneven, auguring caution for expectations that Mexico is THIS WEEK’S CONTRIBUTORS: entering a firmer and more sustained growth path.

Rodolfo Mitchell, Director of Economic and Sectoral Analysis (Mexico)

Miguel Saldaña, Economist (Mexico)

Martha Cordova, Economic Research Specialist (Mexico)

Syed Hasnain Abbas, Economic Analyst Scotiabank Economics

Chart of the Week Peru: Fujimori Begins Presidency Amid Strong Peruvian Economic Momentum 8 y/y % change, 6mma

Country Updates 4 2 Market Events & Indicators 5–6

Forecast Updates 7 0 Formal Sector Employment Key Economic Charts 8 Domestic Demand Ex. Inventories (Index, 2007=100) -2 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 Key Market Charts 9 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BCRP. Yield Curves 10 Chart of the Week: Prepared by: Syed Hasnain Abbas, Economic Analyst.

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BCCh, BanRep, Fed, and Global Macro CONTRIBUTORS

• We have a busy week ahead around the globe that includes BCCh, BanRep, Fed, Juan Manuel Herrera Director BoJ, and BoE policy announcements, a bunch of key economic data in Latam (Mexico) and the G10, a full slate of corporate earnings releases, and likely more Middle East uncertainty.

• Mexican Q2 GDP, Chile’s June macro flood, and mid-July Brazilian inflation are the Latam data highlights that will join a likely rate hold by the BCCh and an unknown magnitude hike by BanRep. Fujimori takes over as Peru’s president on Tuesday, with the country’s markets closed from Monday to Wednesday for the holidays.

• In today’s report, the team in Mexico discusses recent economic trends, as growth momentum remains uneven, auguring caution for expectations that Mexico is entering a firmer and more sustained growth path.

We have a busy week ahead around the globe combining several central bank announcements, a bunch of key economic data, a full slate of earnings releases, and more Middle East uncertainty as if the last few days hadn’t already been full of intrigue—where ‘replacement’ U.S. tariffs were far from being the main story this week.

The concentration of tech earnings (Meta, Microsoft, SK Hynix, Samsung, Amazon, etc.) and central bank meetings (Fed, BoJ, BoE, BCCh, and BanRep) next week is sure to leave an imprint on markets that are wobbling in picking a view for the next leg in markets on the back of AI hopes as well as the possible path for policy rates, with traders layering on hike bets alongside the $25-30/bbl rise in Brent oil prices since early-July.

Some rumblings of a possible rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran are taking some pressure off energy markets heading into the weekend, but markets likely want to see some level of formality to talks before confidently pulling energy prices lower. Tanker crossings via the Strait of Hormuz have practically fallen back to zero, according to Bloomberg data, although there has not yet been a clear impact on crossings through the Bab el Mandeb Strait (and these will now be closely monitored).

In Latin America, the BCCh and BanRep rate announcements (hold and hike, respectively) are accompanied by relatively full economic schedules in Chile, Brazil, and Mexico, all in contrast to a blank macro calendar in Peru where the main event will be the beginning of Keiko Fujimori’s presidential term on Tuesday; local markets are…