Mexico Firmer Consumer Sentiment and Manufacturing Services PMIs

Economics Research 4 August 2026 | 8:49AM EDT

Mexico: Firmer Consumer Sentiment and Manufacturing/Services PMIs; Mixed Business Sentiment Signals

Bottom Line: The Inegi consumer confidence index rose by 1.1pt to 45.0 sa in July, -0.7pt Alberto Ramos | yoy. The improvement of consumer confidence in July was broad-based across its main Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC components, with notably firm readings in the components assessing current conditions for both households and the economy. The signal from the 3 Manufacturing PMIs was mixed but on average positive (+0.5pt to 49.2), with two of the three PMIs now back in expansionary territory. The IMEF Non-Manufacturing PMI rose 0.7pt to 49.9, with new orders, production, and employment declining at a slower pace. The aggregate business confidence index (IGOEC) remained at 48.2 in the July reading, the seventeenth consecutive month below the 50-neutral threshold. Business confidence firmed in construction and non-financial services, and recorded a small increase to 48.2.

1. The Inegi consumer confidence index rose by 1.1pt to 45.0 sa in July (-0.7pt yoy). Despite the improvement in Jul, the consumer confidence headline index is tracking 3.9pt below the Oct-24 cyclical high. 2. The improvement of consumer confidence in Jul was broad-based across its main components. The index measuring the current financial condition of households rose by 0.5pt to 51.8, and the index measuring the current financial condition of the economy rose by 1.7pt to 39.4 (-1.3pt yoy). The forward-looking index on 12-month-ahead expectations for the situation of households rose 0.7pt to 57.1 and the index assessing the expectations for the economy rose by 1.8pt to 45.7 (-1.4pt yoy). Finally, the index measuring the capacity to purchase durable goods rose 1.0pt to a still very low 31.1. 3. The aggregate business confidence index (IGOEC; a composite weighted average of manufacturing, construction, commerce, and non-financial services confidence indices) edged up by 0.1pt to 48.2 (-0.7pt yoy) in Jul. The IGOEC has now been below the 50-neutral threshold for seventeen consecutive months. 4. The IGOET seasonally adjusted trend-cycle series rose by 0.3pt (+0.5pt yoy) in Jul to 51.2. 5. Business confidence firmed in construction (+0.9pt to 47.2 nsa; +0.1pt yoy) and private non-financial services (+0.3pt nsa to 48.5; -1.6pt yoy) remained stable in manufacturing (flat at 48.0; -1.4pt yoy), and ticked down in retail (-0.6pt to 48.4 nsa; +1.2pt yoy). 6. The signal from the 3 Manufacturing PMIs was mixed but on average positive (+0.5pt to 50.3): Markit (flat at 51.3), Inegi (-0.1pt to 50.0), and IMEF (1.5pt to 49.4), with only one of the three Manufacturing PMIs in contractionary territory.

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7. The Markit PMI remained stable at an above-neutral 51.3. 8. New Orders (+0.5pt to 53.3) expanded at a faster pace, while Output (-0.6pt to 48.7) and Employment (-0.4pt to 48.9) contracted at a faster pace. New Export Orders declined (-4.4 to 47.5). 9. Input price/cost pressures (-0.1pt to 69.9) are still very high but moderated slightly at the margin while output prices (+0.1pt to 52.1) rose broadly at the same pace; with input price pressures still significantly more intense than output prices, suggesting margins’ compression. 10. The IMEF Non-Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.7pt to 49.9, with the headline index still in contractionary territory. Production (+1.6pt to 49.3), New Orders (0.8pt to 49.7), and Employment (+1.0pt to 48.7) declined at a slower pace.

Index Percent change, year ago

Consumer Confidence Index (sa) (lhs) 40% 50 Historical Average 30%

25 -50% Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-18 Jun-20 Jun-22 Jun-24 Jun-26

Source: INEGI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research