Mexico Solid Broad Based Expansion of Real GDP During 2Q26

Economics Research 18 September 2026 | 8:49AM EDT

Mexico: Solid Broad-Based Expansion of Real GDP During 2Q26; Some Payback Expected in Q3 (Ramos)

Bottom Line: Real GDP rose 1.42% qoq sa during 2Q2026, with broad based Alberto Ramos | contributions from the main domestic demand components: household Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC consumption (0.9% qoq sa), gross fixed investment (4.3% qoq sa), and government consumption (0.9% qoq sa); and positive contribution from net exports (+2.8pt). The variation of inventories contribution to quarterly growth was slightly negative (-0.1pt), and the statistical discrepancy subtracted a large and perplexing 3.0pt. The increase in gross fixed investment was balanced across private (4.3% qoq sa) and public investment (4.4% qoq sa). The expansion of real activity during 2Q26 was broad-based across the three main supply-side sectors, with sizeable increases recorded in the secondary (1.6% qoq sa) and labor-intensive services (1.4% qoq sa) sectors. Within the secondary sector we highlight firmer manufacturing (1.1% qoq sa), construction (4.0% qoq sa), and mining (0.8% qoq sa). Real GDP grew 1.2% yoy during 1H2026. We expect some payback in Q3 from the outsized Q2 expansion. The statistical carry-over for 2026 is at 1.4%.

Going forward, we expect activity to face headwinds from soft business confidence and peaking credit cycle. On the positive side, generous minimum wage increases, a resilient labor market, and public works should offer some support to domestic demand, while non-auto manufacturing exports benefit from the robust US AI investment cycle. We expect investment to continue to be impacted by both domestic and external uncertainty, in particular related to trade-policy direction in the US and the USMCA review.

1. Real GDP grew 1.42% qoq sa during 2Q26, a clear rebound from the -0.34% qoq sa 1Q26 print. 2. Final domestic demand grew a solid 1.6% qoq sa in 2Q26, rebounding from -0.6% qoq sa in 1Q26. Private consumption rose 0.9% qoq sa in 2Q26 (vs -0.7% qoq sa in 1Q26) and gross fixed capital formation expanded 4.3% qoq sa (vs -2.4% qoq sa in 1Q26), with private investment +4.3% qoq sa (-2.4% qoq sa in 1Q26) and public investment up 4.4% qoq sa (+8.8% qoq sa in 1Q26). Government consumption rose 0.9% qoq sa. 3. Net exports’ contribution to sequential growth was highly positive: +2.8pt, vs -0.3pt in Q1, given the outperformance of exports (+9.3% qoq sa) vis-à-vis imports (+2.3% qoq sa). The contribution of the variation of inventories was marginally negative to Q2 sequential activity (-0.1pt), and the statistical discrepancy subtracted a large and unsettling 3.0pt.

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4. The 2Q26 real activity expansion was broad-based across the main supply-sectors: secondary (+1.6% qoq sa), labor-intensive services (+1.4% qoq sa), and low-weight primary sector (+2.4% qoq sa). Within the secondary sector we highlight the recovery of manufacturing (+1.1% qoq sa, vs -0.5% qoq sa during 1Q26) and construction (+4.0% qoq sa, from -1.3% qoq sa in 1Q26), and mining (0.8% qoq, from0.2% qoq sa in 1Q26). 5. On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, real GDP rose 1.9% yoy sa in 2Q2026 (0.5% yoy sa in 1Q26), with positive contributions from household consumption (2.1% yoy sa), government consumption (2.9% yoy sa), and GFI (3.5% yoy sa, vs -2.5% yoy sa in 1Q26). Exports grew 13.8% yoy sa, and imports also 13.8% yoy sa. 6. With the 2Q26 print, the statistical carry-over for 2026 is at 1.4%; that is, were the economy to remain flat during 2H26 at the 2Q2026 level, real GDP would grow 1.4% in the year.

Demand-side Real GDP Growth (% change yoy) Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 1Q26 2Q26 GDP - GDP- qoq; s.a. Total Domestic Demand - Consumption Prv. C Gov't C - Investment - Gross fixed capital formation - Final Dom. Demand (ex-inventories) - Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services -

Source: Haver Analytics, INEGI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Sequential Demand-side Real GDP Growth (% change qoq…