Mexico Weak Jul Retail Sales

Economics Research 22 September 2026 | 8:34AM EDT

Mexico: Weak Jul Retail Sales; Firm Non-Financial Services (Ramos)

Bottom Line: Retail sales declined 0.1% mom sa in Jul, below consensus for a minor 0.1% Alberto Ramos | increase and adding to the -0.4% mom sa variation in Jun. Non-financial services activity Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC grew 0.9% mom sa, adding to the 0.1% mom sa Jun print. The retail sales carry for 3Q2026 is tracking at -0.3% qoq sa; 1.0% qoq sa for services. Sequential real wage growth was positive in retail (1.0% mom sa; 7.5% yoy sa) and in services (1.0% mom sa; 1.5% yoy sa), with employment growth firmer in retail (0.6% mom sa; 0.7% yoy sa), but softer in services (-0.1% mom sa; -2.0% yoy sa).

Going forward, household consumption of goods and services is likely to continue to face headwinds from lingering domestic and external uncertainty and soft consumer confidence. On the positive side, household spending is likely to benefit from generous minimum wage increases, a still resilient labor market backdrop, pickup in formal employment and remittances, and solid though moderating real wage growth.

Retail Sales: 1.8% yoy (-0.1% mom sa; 2.0% yoy sa) vs. consensus forecast at 2.1% yoy (0.1% mom sa); GS at 0.4% mom sa; prior 2.9% yoy (-0.4% mom sa).

Private Non-Financial Services: -0.5% yoy sa (0.9% mom sa); prior -1.8% yoy sa (+0.1% mom sa).

1. Retail sales declined 0.1% mom sa in Jul, below the Bloomberg consensus for +0.1% mom sa and adding to the -0.4% mom sa Jun print (revised downwards from -0.2% mom sa). The Jun level of retail sales was revised up by 20bp. 2. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 1.8% yoy in Jul, below the 2.1% yoy Bloomberg consensus. The seasonal and calendar-adjusted series show retail sales up 2.0% yoy sa, vs. 2.3% yoy sa in Jun. 3. The statistical carry for 3Q2026 is at -0.3 % qoq sa (1.9% for 2026). 4. Employment in the retail sector rose 0.7% yoy sa (0.6% mom sa) in Jul and average real wages rose 7.5% yoy sa (1.0% mom sa). 5. Non-Financial Services rose 0.9% mom sa in Jul, adding to the +0.1% mom sa Jun print. The May/Jun prints were revised up by 0.2/0.2pt to +0.1/+0.1% mom sa. The Jun level of services activity was revised down by 13bp 6. On an annual basis, private non-financial services activity recorded a -0.5% yoy sa variation (vs. -1.8% yoy sa in Jun). 7. The statistical carry for 3Q2026 services activity sequential growth stands at

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1.0% qoq sa; with carry for 2026 at -1.3 %. 8. Services sector employment declined 0.1% mom sa (-2.0% yoy sa) and real wages rose 1.0% mom sa (1.5% yoy sa).

Soft Retail Sales and Services Activity

Index; 2018 =100; s.a. Index; 2018=100; s.a. Non-Financial Services 125 120 Retail Sales Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26

Source: INEGI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research