Midday Market Intelligence waiting game

Equity Research 15 September 2026 | 12:59PM EDT

Midday Market Intelligence: waiting game

US stocks are trading lower again on Tuesday as markets contemplate three Sarah Herr | bogeymen — rates, AI, and energy — and their implications for inflation and equities. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Chris Hussey | rates, inflation, and equities Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

At 4.99%, yields on 10-year US Treasuries remain close to levels rarely seen since the Kshitij Garg | 2008 Great Financial Crisis on Tuesday, as markets continue to navigate the inflation Goldman Sachs India SPL impulse from tariffs and higher oil (Brent WTI is slightly lower than yesterday, but still holding in ~$106/bbl), the US’ fiscal outlook, and the competition for AI funding. With little ‘new’ news to digest today, but plenty to look forward too — including three closely-watched central bank meetings this week (the FOMC on Wednesday, BoE on Thursday, and BOJ on Friday), markets are adopting a distinctly risk-off posture: in addition to the rise in yields, every sector in the S&P 500 — except energy — is trading lower (see Andrea Ferrario’s Sep-14, GOAL Kickstart, “Market pricing across assets into a busy central bank week”).

Focusing on the Fed, David Mericle expects the FOMC to raise rates during tomorrow afternoon’s scheduled FOMC meeting, as discussed in a Sep-13 US Economics Analyst, “A Hike Without a Signal?” Despite this, we don’t think there’s a fundamental reason to hike, but we recognize that the Fed may feel bound to hike now that markets are pricing in a 90% likelihood of a hike this week. Of course, higher rates are usually a headwind for equity performance, but as Ben Snider highlighted in Friday’s US Weekly Kickstart, “The impact of higher interest rates on equities in charts,” earnings remain strong. And since at the most fundamental level, earnings drive stock prices, so we don’t think higher rates will derail the bull market from here.

On the data front today, the September Empire Manufacturing survey came in below expectations, and the composition of the report was weak (see “USA: Empire Manufacturing Below Expectations”). While the Empire State is not quite the cradle of US manufacturing that it once was, it remains an important intra-month gauge of the economy, and this month’s survey revealed that both new orders and shipments components softened significantly since August, while the employment component edged up slightly. The prices paid components—both current and expected— increased as well.

Turning back to equities, nothing is more real-time than speaking with the people running Corporate America. Below, we highlight what we learned from Day 1 of our Global Consumer & Retail Conference, what we heard from conversation with two

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Goldman Sachs Midday Market Intelligence

industrial tech companies, plus a final look at last week’s Communacopia + Tech Conference in San Francisco.

n Retail. Companies on Day 1 of our Consumer & Retail conference highlighted a resilient, but selective, consumer backdrop, with stable demand, encouraging back-to-school trends, but shoppers remain highly value-conscious and intentional in their purchases, write Kate McShane, Brooke Roach, Lizzie Dove and team in “Global Consumer and Retail Conference 2026 — Day 1 Takeaways.” Today is Day 2 of the conference, with presentations from WMT, HD, LOW, BURL, SN, and more. Visit the conference website, “here,” for the agenda, replays, and all of our takeaways. n AVAV. The defense tech company reiterated its FY27 revenue guidance of 10% yoy at the midpoint during our conversations, highlighting it has 86% visibility into revenue through the end of this fiscal year…