Natural Gas Comment Gastech Sentiment Bullish Near Term LNG Prices

Commodities Research 20 September 2026 | 7:26PM EDT

Natural Gas Comment: Gastech Sentiment Bullish Near-Term LNG Prices

n We attended the Gastech conference in Thailand last week and spoke with a Samantha Dart | broad range of clients, from natural gas producers, to LNG exporters, to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC importers, to gas distributors and end-users. Laura Cyr | n Differently from our investor clients, some of whom have expressed a view that Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

the recent rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield and rising gasoline and diesel prices might incentivize a solution to the Iran conflict, the corporate clients we met with overwhelmingly expect the status quo to continue, and see winter TTF and LNG price upside to over 100 EUR/MWh and $35/mmBtu, respectively, with uncertainty around where and how demand destruction will unfold. n This price upside is consistent with our view that, in the absence of any meaningful improvement in Persian Gulf LNG exports this winter, TTF and JKM will likely reach 105 EUR/MWh and $35/mmBtu by the end of the year, assuming average winter weather, well above our 70 EUR/MW and $24.85/mmBtu base case under a gradually improving Hormuz LNG flow assumption. Below we provide the main takeaways from our client conversations.

Near-Term Market Views 1. Clients’ view: Europe winning cargoes from Asia – for now. US suppliers confirmed that they are currently sending most of their flexible cargoes to Europe instead of to Asia, though LNG sellers in Asia pointed out that some buyers in the region are returning to the market after postponing their LNG import demand during the August TTF and JKM rally.

Our take: Both observations are consistent with recent volume and price data (Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). While the Asia spot LNG price premium relative to European gas prices (JKM-TTF spread) remains low enough to continue to incentivize US LNG supply to head to Europe instead of Asia, it has recently pushed against the threshold that might flip that delivery incentive (red line in Exhibit 2). Should Asia LNG demand strengthen enough under current price levels to take the JKM-TTF spread above the cost for US exporters to divert cargoes from Europe to Asia, this would signal increased competition for LNG cargoes and, as a result, would pose upside risk to our TTF and JKM forecasts, both in our base case and upside price scenario.

This report is intended for distribution to GS institutional clients only.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs Natural Gas Comment

Exhibit 1: US LNG exports to Europe have picked up at the Exhibit 2: While still below the price incentive for US LNG expense of exports to Asia to be sent to Asia, the JKM-TTF spread has recently US LNG loadings marked for delivery in Europe or Asia; mtpa fluctuated above that threshold JKM-TTF spread above the red line means US supply is incentivized to go to Asia instead of to Europe

Source: Kpler, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research US shipping cost differential to deliver LNG in Asia vs in Europe calculated based on the S&P Global Commodity Insights daily published full shipping cost by route.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights, ICE, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2. Clients’ view: No winter supply optimism, TTF and JKM on their way up. Market participants overwhelmingly expect no change to the status quo in Persian Gulf LNG exports, and expect this will drive winter TTF and JKM prices higher towards our 105 EUR/MWh (TTF) and $35/mmBtu (JKM) upside price scenario.

Our take: 105 EUR /MWh TTF is not our base case (which is lower, at 70 EUR/MWh), but it is our expected peak winter price should Persian Gulf LNG supply lack (Exhibit 3). To be clear, while geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated and we make no assumption of a lasting Iran deal, our base case assumes a gradual market adaptation in LNG supply, though slower than what we have observed in the oil market. Persian Gulf LNG exports have averaged between 15% and 25% of pre-war levels over Jul-Aug, and our base…