Navigating China Internet eCommerce tracker Soft August online retail growth

Equity Research 15 September 2026 | 5:50PM HKT

NAVIGATING CHINA INTERNET: ECOMMERCE TRACKER

Soft August online retail growth; normalizing Temu amid its 1P brand push

Ronald Keung, CFA | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Lincoln Kong, CFA | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

August national online retail goods GMV grew +2% yoy vs. +3% in July, with Steve Qiu | sequential deceleration in food/clothing spending. Among major product categories, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. home appliance and electronic equipment sales growth rose to +2.3% yoy and Damian Xie +27.3% yoy in August respectively, from -1.9% yoy and +20.4% yoy in July, | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. supported by favorable base effects. Overall retail sales growth moderated to Iris Xiao +0.4% yoy in August which came in in-line with GSe but below BBG consensus (vs. | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. GSe: +0.4% yoy; BBG consensus: +0.8% yoy), vs. +0.6% in July, driven by slower food/jewelry/cosmetics/automobile growth, at +4%/-18%/+5%/-19% respectively (vs. +5%/-10%/+7%/-17% in July). Factoring in August data, we now expect 3QE online GMV and parcel volume growth of 3%/4% (prior: 4%/4%), while maintain our 2026E industry online GMV and parcel volume growth forecasts of 4%/5% yoy respectively.

Other highlights for August by category/segment:

n Express delivery: Industry parcel volume growth came in at c. 4% yoy in August (vs. 4% in July), suggesting stable AOV per parcel yoy. Our weekly parcel tracker suggests September-to-date parcel volume growth rate at c.4.5% yoy, compared to Aug c. 4%/July 4%/Jun 4%, tracking at c.582mn average daily parcels (under the MoT definition) in the first 13 days of September. n Temu US GMV trends in August: BBG’s second measure tracker suggests moderating growth in US GMV at +5% yoy in August (vs. +24% in July), coming out of the initial disruption following the removal of the de-minimis exemption in May 2025. On the merchant side, the number of Temu merchants decreased by -4% mom (vs. -5% mom in July) as per QuestMobile. We also expect the pressure to persist following the EU’s removal of de-minimis and adoption of flat-rate custom duty per item from July (Europe accounts for c.1/3 of Temu GMV, GSe). That said, we view the company’s long-term commitment to 1P (Xinpinmu, with its first 1P brand Bemuvo launched in select markets in June) and continued

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Goldman Sachs Navigating China Internet: eCommerce tracker

investments into local supply chain, warehousing and fulfillment infrastructure as positive developments for Temu, to enhance business resilience and compliance capabilities while expanding its global addressable market. n Food delivery/quick commerce losses trends: For the Sep quarter, we estimate BABA/Meituan food delivery EBIT of -Rmb9.7bn/Rmb0.6bn (from -Rmb10.4bn/Rmb1.6bn in the Jun quarter) due to Meituan’s self-initiated marketing/subsidy investments for higher GTV share during peak season, despite faster-than-expected 2Q UE/profit recovery.

Looking into 3Q results, we note mixed comments on quarter-to-date trends, from weaker travel demand over Jul-Aug, to continued soft consumer spending and a later Apple product shipment this year, that we expect to weigh on eCom/ads/local services’ 3Q top line, alongside continued elevated 3Q absolute capex spend quarter-on-quarter from hyperscaler mega-caps. On earnings, we expect ongoing quick commerce loss reduction (by half year-on-year for Alibaba and JD) to drive faster profit growth recovery yoy for transaction platforms over 2H26. Within the Cloud & Data Centers sub-sector, we have Alibaba as a key idea on accelerating cloud growth/strong AI compute demand; in eCommerce, JD as a key idea…