Novo Nordisk (NOVOb)

Equity Research 21 September 2026 | 7:29PM BST

Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) CMD highlights post-sema LoE growth ambitions, but proof points still required; Neutral

NOVOb.CO 12m Price Target: Dkr285.00 Price: Dkr281.55 Upside: 1.2% NEUTRAL NVO 12m Price Target: $44.00 Price: $43.24 Upside: 1.8% James Quigley | Goldman Sachs International At its CMD (21st Sept), the key message that Novo was trying to Rajan Sharma convey to investors was that by 2035, after the key patent expiration | Goldman Sachs International for semaglutide, the company will be larger than it expects to be in Theodora Rowe Beadle 2026, driven by at least 5 new multi-blockbuster launches, and it will | Goldman Sachs International fight to make the semaglutide LoE curve as shallow as it can. For the pipeline contribution, in 2035, we include risk-adjusted sales of DKK150bn (across CagriSema, cagrilintide, zenagamtide, Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: Dkr1.3tr / $192.3bn efruxifermin, coramitug, denecimig [mim8] and etavopivat), but do Enterprise value: Dkr1.4tr / $212.6bn 3m ADTV: Dkr1.3bn / $202.3mn not yet carry any sales for other assets such as UBT251, ASCL5i, oral Denmark Europe Pharma & Life Sciences amylin 355 or zaltenibart, which have either recently moved into M&A Rank: 3 Phase 2 or Novo highlighted could be accelerated in terms of Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes

development timelines. Regarding the semaglutide erosion curve, GS Forecast __________________________________ 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E manufacturing and COGS remain a key lever for Novo, particularly Revenue (Dkr mn) 309,064.0 325,312.7 307,972.7 326,157.1 given the experience in some markets already facing generics where EBIT (Dkr mn) 127,658.0 139,128.7 124,328.3 130,079.8 EPS (Dkr) volumes have increased significantly given the lower price point. P/E (X)

Novo’s strategy here is to defend its volume leadership position, EV/EBITDA (ex lease,X) Dividend yield (%) 2.7 4.3 4.5 4.7 while trying to switch the franchise over to the oral version in order FCF yield (%) 3.0 3.7 5.4 6.9

to further enhance the supply/ manufacturing moat. However, while CROCI (%) N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) some new informative data was shown at the event (REDEFINE 9 and REIMAGINE 5), we think it is unlikely the market will significantly EPS (Dkr) 3/26 10.91 6/26E 4.75 9/26E 4.68 12/26E 3.97 change its view around the commercial prospects for Novo’s GS Factor Profile ______________________________ pipeline following the CMD, and further analogue data is required Growth

from broader semaglutide LoE countries for the market to start to Financial Returns think the erosion will be shallower. Furthermore, many investors have anchored to c.4% growth for Novo’s peer set out to 2030 Multiple

(based on Visible Alpha Consensus Data), which when combined Integrated

with flat margins between 2026-30, suggests that pre-2Q company consensus could see downside risk of c.6% (vs. c.3% downside risk Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

based on MSD/5% CAGR as noted by the CFO in the finance NOVOb.CO relative to Europe Coverage

presentation). Therefore, while Novo has laid out its strategy and NOVOb.CO relative to Europe Pharma & Life Sciences

views around supplementary BD/M&A, with recent pipeline Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. disappointments still fresh in investors’ minds, evidence of

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Goldman Sachs Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO)

Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) Balance Sheet (Dkr mn) _____________________________________ NEUTRAL Rating since Mar 2, 2026 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents 26,464.0 5,344.1 2,871.8 11,175.8 Accounts…