Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) Initial thoughts on mid term ambitions operating margin suggest c.3 downside to cons. in 2030

Equity Research 21 September 2026 | 10:19AM BST

Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO): Initial thoughts on mid-term ambitions - operating margin suggest c.3% downside to cons. in 2030

This morning with its CMD, Novo announced mid-term targets and ambitions out to James Quigley | 2030 as well as for risk adjusted sales for new launches out to 2035. In our view, the Goldman Sachs International revenue targets are broadly in line with consensus/ our estimates (discussed below), Rajan Sharma but with stable margins anticipated between 2026-30, this suggests c.3% downside | to company-compiled consensus operating profit estimates. While the risk adjusted Goldman Sachs International

peak sales target of >DKK150bn offers some visibility over the long-term pipeline Theodora Rowe Beadle | potential, the press release did not give details on expectations for speed of the Goldman Sachs International semagltuide LoE, although in early sessions, Novo stated that it intends to fiercely compete for sema volumes. Therefore, while the targets offer some visibility to Shyam Kotadia | investors, in our view the downside risk on operating profit and the lack of Goldman Sachs International commentary (in the press release) about the semagltide LoE are likely to be seen as Max Da, Ph.D. disappointing - although more details could come in the presentations through the | Goldman Sachs International day. Kaaviya Ganesan | New targets vs. Consensus/ GSe Goldman Sachs India SPL

n Deliver 2026-30 revenue CAGR in line with industry peers - Company-compiled Julie Wang | consensus forecasts 5.5% 2026-30 CAGR, which we believe is already broadly in Goldman Sachs International

line with industry peers (GSe 5.7%) n Maintain a broadly stable operating margin - Company-compiled consensus forecasts a 2026 adjusted operating margin of 40.3% in 2026 and 41.6% in 2030 - flat margins suggest c.3% downside to consensus operating profit estimates in 2030 (assuming no changes to 2030 consensus revenue) n Launch >5 multi blockbusters with >DKK150bn revenue on a risk adjusted basis by 2035 - across the key launches in our model (CagriSema, cagrilintide, zenagamtide, efruxifermin, coramitug, denecimig [mim8]) we forecast risk adjusted sales of DKK145bn n Novo highlighted that by 2035, post sema LoE, it expects to be a bigger company with a more diversified revenue base. This is broadly in line with our forecasts with 2035 sales of DKK338bn vs. FY26 sales of DKK298bn.

We are Neutral rated on Novo Nordisk. We derive our price target from a 50:50 blend of DCF and EV/EBITDA approaches. Our bottom-up DCF analysis suggests a valuation of DKK 278 per share. We use a WACC of 7% and a TGR of -2%. On a

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Goldman Sachs Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO)

multiples basis, we believe Novo Nordisk should trade on 13x P/E on our 2027 EPS estimate, implying DKK 289 per share. As a result, our 12-month price target is DKK285 per share. Our ADR PT is set with reference to the Danish line, translated at the current FX rate, leading to an ADR 12-month PT of $44.

Key risks to our view and price target include: Upside risks - (1) faster-than-expected Wegovy pill sales ramp post launch, and (2) higher-than-expected peak CagriSema sales. Downside risks - (1) clinical risks if CagriSema and/or amycretin development were to be unsuccessful; (2) slower-than-expected scale-up in manufacturing for Wegovy/Ozempic; (3) stronger-than-anticipated competitor obesity data, particularly oral small molecule GLP-1 based assets; and (4) deeper and sustained price pressure.

NOVOb.CO 12m Price Target: Dkr285.00 Price: Dkr281.55 Upside: 1.2%

NVO 12m Price Target: $44.00 Price: $43.24 Upside: 1.8%

Neutral GS Forecast 12/25…