NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) First Take EBITDA roughly in line GS consensus, with 1.2 GW data center opportunity announced

Equity Research 4 August 2026 | 9:02AM EDT

NRG Energy Inc. (NRG): First Take: EBITDA roughly in-line GS/consensus, with 1.2 GW data center opportunity announced

NRG Energy (NRG, Buy) reported 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $1,217 mn compared Carly Davenport | to the GS estimate of $1,220 mn and FactSet consensus of $1,199 mn. NRG Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC reaffirmed its 2026 EBITDA guidance at $5,325–$5,825 mn and its FCFbG guidance Beatriz Abreu, CFA at $2,800–$3,350 mn, as well as its shareholder return plan to return $1 bn through | share repurchases and $407 mn through dividends in 2026. Through July 31, the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

company completed $932 mn in share repurchases and distributed $202 mn in Jaya Patel | dividends. Finally, NRG announced an opportunity with a global cloud and AI Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC hyperscaler for the development of a 1.2 GW CCGT facility in Texas, with a potential Ananya Jaison expansion to 2.4 GW. NRG also reiterated a bring your own power (BYOP) | opportunity of 5.4 GW through 2032, introduced a contracted FCF opportunity Goldman Sachs India SPL

(including capacity revenues FCF) of ~$1.2bn in 2030 and ~$2.9bn in 2033.

We expect the focus of the call to be around 1) data center PPA pipeline progress and color on the 1.2 GW data center opportunity, 2) updates on ERCOT Batch Zero transmission allocations and PJM backstop auction, 3) details on the guidance and impacts of the July heatwave, and 4) commentary on shareholder returns and an update on the buyback program.

Analysis What were the key drivers of the quarterly earnings variance?

Overall results came in roughly in line with our estimates on an adjusted EBITDA basis, as lower than expected operating income were largely offset by lower than expected tax expense. Operating income came in below our number due to higher cost of operations, partly offset by higher than expected revenues and lower O&M. On a segment basis, East, West and Vivint results came in above our expectations, while Texas results were below our estimates.

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Goldman Sachs NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)

Exhibit 1: Variance compared to our numbers largely stems from lower than expected operating income, partly offset by lower than expected tax expenses EPS; GSe vs actual 2Q26 Income Statement Variance Income Statement GS est Actual Variance Operating Revenues Revenues From Majority-Owned Operations $5,775 $7,481 $1,706 Wholesale Operating Costs & Expenses Cost of Majority-Owned Operations ($3,364) ($5,759) ($2,395) Depreciation and Amortization ($437) ($494) ($57) Nuclear Amortization $0 $0 $0 Operations & Maintenance and General, Administrative and Development Costs of Ope ($1,192) ($562) $630 Development Charges $0 $0 $0 Operating Charges $0 $56 $56 Total Operating Costs and Expenses ($4,993) ($6,759) ($1,766)

Operating Income $782 $722 ($60)

Minority Interest $0 $0 $0 Equity Earnings $0 $0 $0 Write-downs and Gains (Losses) on Equity Sales, Impairments $0 $0 $0 Other Income, Net $0 $6 $6 Refinancing Expenses $0 $0 $0 Interest Expense ($308) ($318) ($10) Reliant Retail Interest Expense $0 $0 $0 Total Other Income (Expense) ($308) ($312) ($4)

Pre-Tax Profit $475 $410 ($65) Income Tax Expense ($119) ($78) $41 Net Income (attributable to noncontrolling interest) $356 $332 ($24) Dividends for Preferred Shares ($17) ($17) $0 Net Income, Continuing Operations $339 $315 ($24) Discontinued Operations $0 $0 $0 Non-GAAP Exceptionals $0 $0 $0 Minority interest $0 $0 $0 Net Income, Adjusted $339 $315 ($24) Adjusted EBITDA walk $881 $902 $21 Adjusted EBITDA $1,220 $1,217 ($3) Adjusted EPS $1.64 $1.49 ($0.15)

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: On a…