On the Road with Goldman Sachs Everything we Learned at the 33rd Global Consumer & Retail Conference

Equity Research 22 September 2026 | 1:37PM EDT

On the Road with Goldman Sachs: Everything we Learned at the 33rd Global Consumer & Retail Conference

Sarah Herr | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Chris Hussey | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

The consumer is showing little sign of fading under the weight of higher rates, higher gasoline prices, and depressed consumer sentiment (see Joseph Briggs’ take on the latter in Sep-17’s “Is Poor Economic Sentiment Really About the Economy?”). Indeed, companies at our Global Retail & Consumer Conference last week in New York City repeatedly highlighted that the US consumer remains resilient, but discerning, favoring value, convenience, services, and necessities. Looking ahead, the headwinds to consumer spending from higher gas prices (among other things) remain, but we are cautiously optimistic heading into 2027, and recently raised our 2027 discretionary cash inflow forecast to +3.9% – even as we expect a slight deceleration through the back half of 2026 (see Kate McShane and team’s Sep-9 note, “2027 Consumer Spending Outlook: Expect modest sequential improvement in pre-savings DCF, but bottom-quintile to lag on still pressured trends”).

In this brief note, we capture the top takeaways from across the conference and the broader consumer landscape. See the team’s conference summary notes, “Global Consumer and Retail Conference 2026 — Day 1 Takeaways” and “Global Consumer and Retail Conference 2026 — Day 2 Takeaways,” and visit the conference website, “here,” for the agenda, all of the indivudal company takeaways, and replays.

Prefer to listen? Click into three podcasts diving into what we learned at the conference and how we’re thinking about spending next year.

n Sep-18: “On the Road with Goldman Sachs: 33rd Annual Global Retailing Conference Takeaways” n Sep-15: “Inside the Model: Mapping the Consumer Wallet” n Sep-10: “Research Unplugged: Assessing the Health of the Consumer into 2027 and a Preview of the GS Global Consumer & Retail Conference”

Big Picture. Presenters were near-unanimous in describing demand as stable rather than deteriorating, with several explicitly noting no material change in consumer behavior. Ultimately, while macroeconomic volatility, elevated gas prices, and promotional intensity represent near-term headwinds, well-capitalized market leaders with advanced omnichannel delivery capabilities, wide vendor networks, and

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Goldman Sachs On the Road with Goldman Sachs

defensive grocery or extreme-value assortments are demonstrating substantial margin resiliency and structural market share gains. Looking ahead, the vast majority of companies expect consumer health to remain stable through 2H26, and over half of the companies expect AUR/pricing to increase next year, with another 40% expecting prices to hold. Finally, on the AI/tech front, the majority of companies expect to see some level of efficiency gain from the use of AI.

n Big Box Retail. All of the macro and inflationary pressures discussed above is manifesting in smaller basket sizes and closer-to-home shopping, but it is simultaneously driving a powerful trade-down effect. The lower-income cohorts are more under more pressure, but higher-income households are increasingly migrating to discount formats. Beyond the consumers themselves, companies highlighted the different ways they’re utilizing tariff refunds as well as their pricing strategies. Both WMT and BJ received substantial one-time tariff cash inflows, which they are aggressively reinvesting into promotional rollbacks and widening their price gaps against traditional grocers and specialty retailers. Key to watch: how retailers are executing structural…