Packed week with payroll, AMD, Palantir, SpaceX

Trading Catalysts Packed week with payroll, AMD, Palantir, SpaceX

Higher yields into payroll and more tech earnings 03 August 2026

Warsh struck a dovish tone at last week’s FOMC, but firm incoming data (watch payroll Equity and Quant Strategy on Aug 7, CPI on Aug 12) could force the Fed to reassert its inflation credibility. Our United States economists expect three further hikes this year (see Econ Weekly), but our rates team Paula Andrea Soto, CFA >> recommend being long 5y5y inflation as a hedge against the risk that the Fed waits for a LatAm Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (Brazil) more obvious deterioration in inflation expectations before tightening (see Rates Watch). This setup could drive a retreat from risk assets and/or rotation into defensives Thomas (T.J.) Thornton – see global strategist Michael Harnett’s recommendation in his note. Head of Research Marketing BofAS Economics: Expect firm but below-consensus payroll Economics Our economists expect payrolls (Fri) to rise by a below-consensus (but still firm) 80k in Stephen Juneau US Economist July (private: 95k). They expect the u-rate to round up to 4.3% as participation rebounds, BofAS though strong household employment could keep it at 4.2%. These numbers would Equity & Quant Strategy support our economists’ call for three hikes this year. Calendar details on page 2. Savita Subramanian Equity & Quant Strategist BofAS AMD: expect a healthy beat Fundamental Equity AMD reports Aug 4th (Tue after close). BofA analyst Vivek Arya expects a healthy beat, Mariana Perez Mora Research Analyst and sees it as best-positioned with CPU/GPU demand/supply visibility, Venice launch, BofAS first MI455X rack shipments in 2H. Ronald J. Epstein Research Analyst PLTR: Focus on US growth; SpaceX first earnings print BofAS

Palantir (PLTR) reports on Aug 3rd (Mon after close). BofA Analyst Mariana Perez Mora Vivek Arya Research Analyst expects strong US commercial sales (up ~140% Y/Y) as well as robust US govt growth as BofAS recent contract awards, on-contract growth and strong alignment with DOW priorities Derivatives Strategy more than offset still slow environment. The high short interest ratio could act as a Nitin Saksena Equity-Linked Analyst catalyst for a strong price move post print. SpaceX (SPCX) reports Aug 4th (Tue after BofAS close). BofA Analyst Ron Epstein expects strong revenue growth (up 63% Y/Y) including See Team Page for List of Analysts >50% growth at Starlink and >150% growth from AI revenues given contributions from recent compute deals. The name has traded down following gains immediately post-IPO, and the company’s first print could drive significant volatility given elevated short Exhibit 1: Key near-term catalysts SPX implied move interest (2.2 days to cover) and the scheduled unlock of ~911mn shares (~140% more than current float) on August 6. Imp. Date move Potential catalysts Big tech earnings underway. Hedge tech upside 8/3 Mon 8/4 Tue 0.53% 0.47% PLTR AMD, SPCX Vol markets are increasingly pricing in longer-term AI boom-bust risk despite the recent 8/5 Wed 0.54% pullback. In the near-term, our derivs team likes to hedge tech upside risk with options 8/6 Thu 0.55% (SMH call spreads, as outlined in see 21-Jul-26 GEVI), given a calendar of big tech 8/7 Fri 0.69% NFP earnings still underway. Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

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