Porsche AG (P911 p.DE) 15th German Corporate Conference — Key Takeaways

Equity Research 22 September 2026 | 4:18PM BST

Porsche AG (P911_p.DE): 15th German Corporate Conference — Key Takeaways

Christian Frenes | Goldman Sachs International

Robert Triulzi | Goldman Sachs International Presenters: We hosted Porsche AG’s IR team including Bjoern Scheib (Head of IR), Monika Mengting Liu, CFA Alexander Huettinger and Anna-Lena Hofsaeß at our 15th German Corporate | Goldman Sachs International Conference in Munich. Shivam Kotecha | Bottom line: 1) FY26 guidance remains unchanged despite VW’s impairment-related Goldman Sachs India SPL ad hoc announcement, 2) FY27 is expected to remain a challenging transition year due to the Macan product gap and ongoing restructuring, 3) management continues to target a U-shaped recovery in FY28 driven by product normalization and cost savings, and 4) investor attention is on the 7 October CMD and the credibility of the new Sportwagenschmiede 2035 strategy.

Porsche AG guidance reiterated despite VW ad hoc: Porsche AG reiterated its FY26 guidance of €35bn-36bn revenue, a 5.5%-7.5% RoS and a 5.5%-7.5% net cash flow margin despite Friday’s Volkswagen ad hoc announcement, which included significant Porsche AG stake impairments at the VW level. Management emphasized that the announcement does not relate to any altered assumptions at Porsche AG. For FY26, management continues to expect c.240k units, including a weaker-than-expected China contribution of c.25k units, while €700mn-800mn of restructuring charges are expected to burden 2H26, currently assumed to be broadly equally split between 3Q and 4Q, subject to ongoing personnel negotiations.

2027 to remain a transition year ahead of recovery: Management expects FY27 volumes of c.220k units, with China declining further to c.10% of group volumes. The lower volume outlook primarily reflects the discontinuation of the 13-year old ICE Macan, which management estimates will represent a mid-triple-digit million euro EBIT headwind. Additional pressures include continued restructuring costs of €400mn in FY27 versus €1.2bn in FY26, double-digit million costs from lower Leipzig utilization and incrementally higher D&A, partially offset by the first benefits from ongoing cost initiatives.

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Porsche AG (P911_p.DE)

FY28 recovery underpinned by product normalization and cost benefits: Investor discussions remained focused on management’s targeted U-shaped recovery in FY28, supported by the launch of the 718 BEV (in 2027) and the return of the ICE Macan in mid-2028. Management emphasized that FY28 should benefit both from further top-end product availability and the absence of restructuring-related one-offs, while savings from restructuring and personnel measures are expected to build progressively towards a mid-triple-digit million euro benefit by 2030. In addition, current BEV-related supplier compensation payments and elevated R&D burdens are expected to roll off by 2030, providing further support to earnings recovery path.

All eyes on the 7 October CMD: With Porsche’s highly anticipated CMD approaching on 7 October, investor focus centered on the company’s new Sportwagenschmiede 2035 strategy and its targeted 10%-15% margin range. Management emphasized that the strategy will be deliberately conservative, focused on core brand strengths and supported by a greater emphasis on individualization, while notably assuming no material recovery in China volumes.

We continue to value Porsche on a forward P/E basis applying a target multiple of 20x on our blended FY27/28 EPS deriving a 12-month target price of €53.

n Delays to new product launches and delivery timelines: Any further slippage in anticipated product…