South Korea Stronger than Expected July Exports on Further Tech Gains

Economics Research 2 August 2026 | 1:08PM KST

South Korea: Stronger-than Expected July Exports on Further Tech Gains

Bottom line: Irene Choi | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Korea’s headline exports fell only 3.0% mom sa in July, pulling back slightly from a Branch

sharp 12.7% increase the prior month and ending a 7-month streak of increases. The Goohoon Kwon, CFA | pullback was smaller than our forecast and Bloomberg consensus. Non-tech exports, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. accounting for roughly half of total, dropped 6.8% after rising 14.1% in June, weighed down by petroleum. However, semiconductor exports continued to rise at a robust pace of 5.5% after increasing 7.2% in June. Exports to the US and ASEAN dropped 8.6% and 9.6% respectively, and together accounted for roughly 70% of the headline sequential losses. Imports fell 1.1% and the trade surplus (not seasonally adjusted) narrowed to US$30.3bn from a historical high of US$36.1bn the prior month.

July exports: +62.8% year-on-year; Bloomberg consensus: +60.6%; GS forecast: 60.4%; Previous: +70.7%.

July imports: +26.5% year-on-year; Bloomberg consensus: +27.9%; GS forecast: +27.4%; Previous: +30.0%.

July trade balance: US$30.3bn; Bloomberg consensus: US$29.5bn; Previous: US$36.1bn

1. Korea’s headline exports fell 3.0% mom sa in July (non-annualized, seasonally adjusted by GS), pulling back from a sharp 12.7% increase the prior month and ending a 7-month streak of increases. In year-on-year terms, growth moderated to 62.8% from 70.7% the prior month. The outcome was stronger than our forecast of 60.4% and Bloomberg consensus of 60.6%. 2. Non-tech exports, accounting for roughly half of total, dropped 6.8% after rising 14.1% in June (Exhibit 2). Among major products for which breakdown is available, momentum was the weakest for petroleum products which dropped 8.5% on lower prices. In contrast, semiconductor exports increased 5.5% mom sa, rising after a 7.2% gain in June and extending increases for the 11th

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consecutive month. Other tech exports gained relatively modestly by 2.6%, as strong gains in computers (+6.0%) were partly offset by declines in flat panel displays (-6.5%). 3. Exports to the US and ASEAN dropped 8.6% and 9.6% respectively, and together accounted for roughly 70% of the headline sequential losses (Exhibit 3). Exports to Japan and all other destinations (mostly EM) also fell 3.2% and 9.6% respectively. In contrast, exports to the EU continued to rise rapidly by 17.4%, and exports to China increased at a moderated pace of 3.7%. 4. Imports fell 1.1% mom sa, also pulling back from a 8.8% increase the prior month. Energy imports increased slightly by 1.9%, but the gains were offset by declines in imports of precision instructions and electronic products. In year-on-year terms, growth moderated to 26.5% from 30.0%, slightly below our forecast and Bloomberg consensus. The trade surplus (not seasonally adjusted) narrowed to US$30.3bn from a historical high of US$36.1bn the prior month but stayed almost five times the level seen same time last year.

Exhibit 1: Slight pullback in July exports Jul-26 Jun-26 May-26 Apr-26 Mar-26 Feb-26 Jan-26 Dec-25 Nov-25 Oct-25 Sep-25 Aug-25 Jul-25 Exports growth (% yoy) Exports growth (% 3m/3m sa) Exports growth (% mom sa) (

Memorandum item: Non-ship exports % yoy Non-ship exports % mom sa ( Non-ship trade balance - US$bn

Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources

Exhibit 2: Sustained strong gains in chips offset by declines in non-tech exports

Index (100=Dec 2019, sa) Index (100=Dec 2019, sa) 600 600

Exports in US$ levels, by product breakdown 520 520 Chips Non-chip tech 440 440 Energy Autos/auto parts 360 Others 360

40 40 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26

Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources