The Credit Line Banks and AI A Credit Positive Outlook

Credit Strategy | September 21, 2026 | 11:42 AM BST

THE CREDIT LINE Banks and AI: A Credit-Positive Outlook

Banks and AI: Fee Opportunities and Efficiency Gains Sara Grut Following our June review of how investment-grade non-financial firms discuss AI, we assess US and European bank commentary in earnings calls and other disclosures. Our key conclusion is that Goldman Sachs International AI is likely to be credit-positive for banks through two channels. First, they can monetize the AI capex cycle through advisory, underwriting, syndication, asset-management and selective lending Amanda Lynam, CPA revenues. Second, they can deploy AI internally to support automation and cost discipline. The AI capex theme is most pronounced among US banks, but the efficiency angle is evident in both regions. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Facilitating the Capex Cycle Arun Manohar US banks are far more likely than non-financial firms to discuss AI capex on earnings calls, reflecting the commercial opportunities created by the buildout. Banks can arrange construction facilities, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC bridge financing and project packages while distributing longer-dated risk to institutional and private-market investors. The potential opportunity set includes a wide range of capital markets Spencer Rogers, CFA and financing activity (debt and equity), trading intermediation, and hedging. The Fed’s January Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey points to banks’ greater willingness to lend to firms expected to benefit from AI, and we expect them to take a more active lending role if capacity in Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC traditional syndicated markets becomes constrained. Given the scale of the anticipated AI-related capex need, we also continue to expect the private markets will play an increasingly important role Shamshad Ali in the financing. Our equity colleagues recently highlighted a growing supply-demand imbalance for AI and expect the capex cycle to remain elevated through the end of 2027. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Reaffirming Our Overweight Stance on Banks Ben Shumway AI-related activity has contributed at the margin to higher USD bank supply, in contrast to relatively flat EUR IG bank supply. Elevated USD bank issuance reflects both opportunistic funding amid tight spreads and greater balance-sheet use for prime-brokerage financing and C&I lending across the AI Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ecosystem. While this is a technical headwind for USD banks, we think it is outweighed by the associated fee, financing, and efficiency benefits, which should support credit fundamentals. Neth Karunamuni Banks’ overall share of USD IG gross supply has also remained broadly stable at roughly 40%, while technology’s share has increased sharply towards 20%. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

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Banks and AI: A Credit-Positive Outlook

In June, we reviewed earnings transcripts and regulatory filings across investment-grade non-financial corporations in the USD and EUR credit markets. Our key takeaway was that, while management teams increasingly frame AI as a productivity opportunity, evidence that these benefits are materializing at scale remains limited.

We also argued that the AI buildout is becoming a major driver of corporate funding needs. AI-related issuers have already contributed meaningfully to debt supply this year, and we expect the funding burden to broaden as more firms finance their own AI capex. Reflecting this dynamic, we recently raised our 2026 USD IG gross supply forecast to $2.3 trillion from $2.1 trillion and penciled in $2.4 trillion for 2027, setting the stage for two consecutive years of record gross issuance.

This week, we turn to banks. Our review of earnings calls, regulatory filings and transcript data across the largest investment-grade US and European banks suggests that AI is credit-positive for the sector through two channels, which directly inform fundamental metrics:

n Fee generation and ecosystem lending: Banks can capture advisory, debt and equity underwriting, and…