Trex Company Inc. (TREX) 2Q26 Recap Successful Brand Investments and Productivity Suggest Upside to 2H26 and 2027 EPS

Equity Research 4 August 2026 | 9:42PM EDT

Trex Company Inc. (TREX) 2Q26 Recap: Successful Brand Investments and Productivity Suggest Upside to 2H26 and 2027 EPS

TREX 12m Price Target: $61.00 Price: $47.02 Upside: 29.7% BUY Susan Maklari Lean Channel Inventories and Strategic Initiatives Coming | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Through to Results: We believe Trex is well-positioned to deliver on Charles Perron-Piche, CFA strategic initiatives, driving upside to our 2026 and out-year | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC estimates. Our view comes as management noted the following on the call: 1) recent investments in marketing are driving demand Rhea Bhatia | Goldman Sachs India SPL across price points and products, contributing to the targeted $2bn in sales by 2030, 2) expectations for EBITDA margin recovery in 2027 led by the accelerated ramp in Arkansas, higher utilization Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: $4.8bn rates and productivity along with overhead leverage to SG&A, and 3) Enterprise value: $5.1bn 3m ADTV: $93.4mn investments in branding and talent as well as digital initiatives will United States allow for two-thirds of the targeted long-term growth to be organic Americas Homebuilders & Building Products M&A Rank: 3 with the balance from M&A. In the near-term, we highlight an GS Forecast __________________________________ acceleration in demand in May and June that has continued into 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

July, putting production at expected rates and suggesting upside to Revenue ($ mn) New Revenue ($ mn) Old 1,174.3 1,174.3 1,244.3 1,241.7 1,301.8 1,304.6 1,366.9 1,369.9 second half revenues and profitability. Channel inventories are also EBITDA ($ mn) EBIT ($ mn) running below historical norms, further suggesting additional sell-in EPS ($) New into the fall. These strategic efforts are supported by impressive EPS ($) Old P/E (X) cash generation, as we model $152mn in FCF this year in addition to Dividend yield (%) -- -- -- -- $309mn in share repurchases as Trex balances growth and Net debt/EBITDA (X) 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7

shareholder returns. As these benefits come through, we see upside 6/26 9/26E 12/26E 3/27E to the valuation and maintain our Buy rating. EPS ($)

GS Factor Profile ______________________________ Success of Marketing Reflected in Second Half Outlook with Growth

Upside Over Time: The benefits of increased marketing Financial Returns investments, the ongoing secular shift from wood, and efforts to Multiple support channels across distribution were highlights of the call. We note 2Q sell-out grew 7% while sell-in was up 9% on a trailing Integrated

12-month basis vs an increase of 6% and 7% in 1Q, respectively. The Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th shift this quarter reflects the effects of timing in the last year vs strategy. We note 2Q sales were led by volumes with limited TREX relative to Americas Coverage TREX relative to Americas Homebuilders & Building Products contribution from price and modest contributions from new retail store placements and ordering from newly announced distribution Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. partners. More specifically, the expansion reflects demand across price points and product lines consistent with a successful increase

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Trex Company Inc. (TREX)

Trex Company Inc. (TREX) Balance Sheet ($ mn) _______________________________________ BUY Rating since Oct 3, 2023 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 Accounts receivable Inventory Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets /25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total current…