Vaxcyte Inc. (PCVX) Timelines for Key VAX 31 Readouts Remain on Track

Equity Research 6 August 2026 | 6:02AM EDT

Vaxcyte Inc. (PCVX): Timelines for Key VAX-31 Readouts Remain on Track

Vaxcyte’s 2Q26 financial results and business update was relatively uneventful, in our Asad Haider, CFA | view, with the most important aspect being that timelines are reaffirmed for the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

flagship VAX-31 trials. Here, previously articulated readouts remain on track for both Nick Jennings | the Ph3 Adult (OPUS-1 4Q26; OPUS-2 and OPUS-3 1H27) and Ph2 Infant (1H27, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC where the primary series and booster will be presented either sequentially or together) programs. Jeff Su | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Recall last quarter, PCVX framed that their base case expectation for the adult OPUS-1 trial is for VAX-31 to miss the non-inferiority threshold on a total of 6 specific serotypes — 1 vs. PFE’s Prevnar20 (22F) and 5 vs MRK’s Capvaxive (3, 8, 23B, 31, 35B). Here, management notes they believe this would represent a great outcome and clearly approvable profile based on a totality of data, highlighting that even for the non-inferiority misses, they would expect VAX-31 to produce titer levels well above that needed for disease protection.

Externally, management notes some interesting pneumococcal vaccine market dynamics that bear monitoring. In the adult market, Vaxcyte points out that MRK’s PCV21 Capvaxive appears to have slowed from a market share capture perspective vs PFE’s PCV20 Prevnar 20, which they believe is influenced by Capvaxive’s lack of coverage for serotype 4 — there has been an increase in circulation of serotype 4, particularly in US western states and in the UK, which they see as leading to Prevnar 20’s resiliency. Vaxcyte believes this sets up well for VAX-31, as it would not require a trade-off for serotype coverage. On the pediatric market side, France recently moved from a 2+1 to 3+1 dosing schedule, which could represent increased revenue, and could prompt other countries to revisit their dosing schedules as well, which would represent market expansion.

Overall, we expect interest in this name to build near-term as we approach the 4Q OPUS-1 readout.

Our 12-month price target of $67 is derived from our 2040 DCF estimates using a WACC of 13% and a TGR of 1%.

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Goldman Sachs Vaxcyte Inc. (PCVX)

n We believe that the policy debate on vaccines has had a negative impact on PCVX stock to some extent. Further remedy or removal of policy overhang could shift investor sentiment and lead to a positive rerate for the stock. n Better-than-expected clinical data could present upside to our outer estimates and our DCF valuation. n A faster-than-expected regulatory approval and recommendation could lead to upside to our valuation. n Slower-than-expected rate of cash burn could lead to longer-than-expected cash runway.

n Further uncertainty in vaccine policy could further deteriorate the sentiment on the stock. n Worse-than-expected clinical data could present downside to our outer estimates and our DCF valuation. n A slower-than-expected regulatory approval and recommendation could lead to downside to our valuation. n Faster-than-expected rate of cash burn could lead to shorter-than-expected cash runway.

PCVX 12m Price Target: $67.00 Price: $55.92 Upside: 19.8%

Neutral GS Forecast 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Market cap: $7.8bn Revenue ($ mn) Enterprise value: $7.6bn EBITDA ($ mn) (911.6) (1, m ADTV: $82.0mn EBIT ($ mn) (923.7) (1, ) United States EPS ($) ( ) Americas Pharmaceuticals P/E (X) NM NM NM NM M&A Rank: 3 EV/EBITDA (X) NM NM NM NM FCF yield (%) ( ) Dividend yield (%) -- -- -- -- Net debt/EBITDA (X) -- -- -- --

3/26 6/26E 9/26E 12/26E EPS ($) ( )

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