Week in Focus 21 25th September 2026 Highlights include Xi s visit to the US Global Flash PMIs Aussie jobs and the SNB rate decision

Week in Focus 21-25th September 2026: Highlights include Xi’s visit to the US, Global Flash PMIs, Aussie jobs and the SNB rate decision • MON: Japanese Market Holiday, Chinese LPR (Sep) • TUE: US Richmond Fed (Sep) • WED: SARB Announcement, Global Flash PMIs (Sep) • THU: Chinese President Xi's state visit to the US, Norges Bank Announcement, Riksbank Announcement, SNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement, Japanese Flash PMI (Sep), Australian Jobs Report (Aug), German Ifo Survey (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Aug) • FRI: China Mid-Autumn Festival Market Holiday, US Durable Goods (Aug)

WEEK AHEAD CHINESE LPR (MON): The PBoC is expected to maintain its 1yr LPR at 3.00% and 5yr LPR at 3.50%, marking a 16th consecutive month of unchanged rates. Despite continued weakness in domestic demand, policymakers have shown little appetite for further broad-based easing, with pressure on commercial bank margins and a more hawkish global rates backdrop limiting scope for cuts. Policymakers are instead leaning more heavily on liquidity measures and targeted support, with any unexpected LPR reduction likely to signal greater concern over the domestic growth outlook.

SARB ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): The South African Central Bank is expected to convene on Tuesday, with markets split on what the Bank will do; current pricing indicates a 52% chance of a 25bps hike. At the meeting in July, rates were surprisingly left on hold, with Amundi analysts highlighting the risk to credibility if rates are left on hold again. Inflation remains outside the Bank’s inflation target band, with the July figure printing at 4.3% Y/Y. Although this may point to a hike, the most recent inflation expectations gauge could help the dovish members of the MPC argue for a hold. Average inflation expectations for 2026 were unchanged at 4.4%, while expectations for 2027 and 2028 fell to 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively (prev. 4.2% and 3.9%). Another factor supporting the doves is the most recent growth figure, with the Q2 GDP metric contracting 0.2%. At the July meeting, the MPC voted 4-2 in favour of a hold, with the two dissenters voting to hike the policy rate by 25bps, while the statement highlighted downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation.

UK FLASH PMI (WED): UK Composite PMI is expected to remain steady at around 52.5 in September, with Services also seen at around 52.5 and Manufacturing at 51.7, signalling continued but modest private-sector growth. Services are expected to remain the main driver of activity, while manufacturers continue to face elevated energy, freight and input costs. Employment also remains relatively weak as firms contend with higher labour costs. A stronger-than-expected release would point to continued resilience in the UK economy and support the BoE remaining cautious on the path for rates.

EZ FLASH PMI (WED): Focus for the EZ Flash PMI will be on whether the region's strong activity can continue for another month despite the sustained rise in energy prices. The latest round of hostilities between the US and Iran, and more recently Yemen and Saudi Arabia, may weigh on business sentiment, while persistently elevated prices may result in higher costs. As a reminder, the last report saw the Composite rise to 52.0 (prev. 51.9), highlighting the resilience of the EZ activity picture. For reference, the figure was above the pre-Iran war level of 51.9.

CHINESE PRESIDENT XI VISIT TO US (THU): Chinese President Xi is expected to meet US President Trump in Washington on 24th September for their second summit this year, following Trump's visit to Beijing in May. Trade will be a key part of discussions, including a potential extension of the existing tariff truce, Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods and Boeing aircraft, US access to Chinese rare earths and critical minerals, and Beijing's push for relief from US technology restrictions. Taiwan and broader military tensions are also expected to feature, alongside Iran, China's purchases of Iranian energy, Russia and the flow of dual-use goods. AI is another notable part of the agenda, with both sides having pursued talks on managing risks from advanced systems ahead of the summit. The meeting follows…