Weekly Flows and CFTC Positioning

Aggregate USD Long Extends Into Late July, Buoyed By US/Iran Tensions Data in this report cover up to Tuesday July 21st.

Global FX Strategy • The latest CFTC currency positioning report revealed a continued build in the sizeable USD long, rising $4.2bn w/w to $43.3bn. The latest reporting period captured FX SENTIMENT REPORT speculative sentiment into Tuesday, July 21st, incorporating the continued July 27, 2026 intensification of the US/Iran conflict as well as the latest deterioration in US/Canada relations and the arrival of UK PM Burnham. Adjustments among the reporting Analyst currencies were dominated by the material build in the EUR net short, the modest extension of the bearish JPY bet, and the slight narrowing in the GBP’s net short. The Shaun Osborne Chief FX Strategist NZD’s net short extended its recovery, and the AUD’s net short widened slightly. The bearish CHF position narrowed marginally while the CAD and MXN positions were largely unchanged w/w. The CAD remains the largest reported net short, and is closely followed by the sizeable bearish bet against the JPY. Short positions in the Eric Theoret EUR, CHF, and GBP are meaningful, and followed by lesser bearish bets against the FX Strategist NZD and AUD. The MXN remains the only reported currency held net long vs. USD. • The net short CAD position was largely unchanged, narrowing $0.2bn w/w to $12.4bn with a minor recovery that marked the first (marginal) improvement following a 10- week run of deterioration from the middle of May. Details reveal a narrowing in the sizeable bearish gross short position alongside a liquidation of bullish gross longs, suggesting an overall paring of CAD risk to both sides. The bearish CAD position remains historically extended and we continue to feel that shorts are vulnerable to a squeeze in the event of a recovery in spot. • The speculative EUR position has fallen decisively into bearish territory following the latest $4.1bn w/w build in the net short to $5.9bn. The position had held close to neutral since mid-March, attempting a modest recovery through late June as it sought to retrace its decline from the near-record net long it reached in early February. Details reveal sizeable positions on both sides, with gross longs that remain historically elevated and gross shorts that continue to extend their push toward record levels. • The extended JPY short position has seen a meaningful w/w build, widening $2.2bn to $11.7bn, and marking a clear reversal of the modest recovery that it had attempted since late June. Details reveal gross positions that remain historically extended on both sides, with gross longs at levels just above the records observed prior to the 2025 peaks and gross shorts that are climbing back toward the record level reached in mid-June.

Sentiment USD mns 21-Jul Bias Trend Position w/w chg. CAD bearish neutral -12,365 173 EUR bearish increasing -5,890 -4,090 GBP bearish decreasing -4,645 1,318 AUD bearish increasing -2,638 -496 NZD bearish decreasing -2,911 739 MXN bullish neutral 2,060 -33 CHF bearish decreasing -5,267 443 JPY bearish increasing -11,654 -2,204 Gold neutral neutral 0 -97,134 Total USD position ex. Gold 43,309 4,150 CAD — NON-COMMERCIAL POSITIONING (USD mn) Position - Contracts of 100,000 CAD Date Net Long Short Net Net w/w Open Int. 21-Jul -12,365 27,007 -201,455 -174,448 1,831 365,599 14-Jul -12,539 29,712 -205,991 -176,279 -3,153 368,792 7-Jul -12,191 31,566 -204,692 -173,126 -22,320 363,847 30-Jun -10,623 37,989 -188,795 -150,806 -4,014 346,500

FX Sentiment Report July 27, 2026