Will Brazil Have A James Comey Moment

Brazil - Quick Insights 04 Aug 2026

WILL BRAZIL HAVE A ‘JAMES COMEY’ MOMENT? Elizabeth Johnson

The Lula campaign is increasingly on edge after the Supreme Court (STF) announced it would investigate Lula’s son for alleged influence-peddling. That announcement comes as Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign received some positive news from the latest BTG/Nexus poll, which shows he is in a technical tie with Lula in the runoff round. Although Lula remains the favourite to win the election, we believe that negative news about Lula’s son – especially in the days leading up to the ballot – could shift voter sentiment, depending on the gravity of the allegations.

Lula’s eldest son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva (“Lulinha”), has been a political liability for his father since 2005, when the press revealed he was a partner in a small gaming company that had secured a BRL5mn investment from telecommunications company Telemar. The investigation was eventually closed because of insufficient evidence. But Lula’s political enemies have fuelled rumours of Lulinha’s hidden wealth – among the more outlandish allegations is that he is a secret shareholder in beef-processing giant JBS. This means that regardless of whether Lulinha is eventually exonerated, the news of the STF investigation will provide grist to the fake news mill. For his part, Lula has reportedly asked his son to return to Brazil from Spain – where he now lives – to prove his innocence. The president has also stressed that he will not seek special treatment for his son and that if he has

broken the law, “he will be treated like any other citizen, without privilege or protection”.

Three investigations into Lulinha were requested by the Federal Police and approved last week: two by STF Justice André Mendonça, a Bolsonaro appointee, and one by Justice Flávio Dino, a Lula appointee. They concern alleged lobbying at the Ministry of Health, contracts with the government IT firm Dataprev, and government contracts granted to IT company 3Structure It. Although all three investigations remain at an early stage, they increase pressure on Lula at a time when his approval ratings have begun to improve. Furthermore, they come at a time when corruption has become a secondary issue in the election.

Flávio also remains exposed to further corruption allegations. The Banco Master scandal still has legs and last month Justices Mendonça and Dino authorized inquiries into the financing of Dark Horse, the biopic about former President Bolsonaro. Investigators will look into the transfer of BRL61mn by Daniel Vorcaro, the owner of Banco Master, at Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s request and whether some of the money was used to support Eduardo Bolsonaro in the United States.

We believe that evidence from any of these investigations — or from another inquiry — could be released on the eve of the election and potentially influence the outcome of the vote, à la James Comey. In this case, however, both candidates are vulnerable, underscoring the potential for an upset as election day approaches.