Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / AAON
AAON · Industrials
AAON US listed · USD美股 · 美元
AAON, Inc. manufactures heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment for commercial and industrial indoor environments.AAON公司为商业和工业室内环境制造供暖、通风和空调设备。
Mid cap中盘 · $7B
Industrials
S&P 400标普400中盘
Broken growth成长受损
$89.10
+$4.83 · +5.73%
52w low52周低 $71.06high高 $152
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~8 days ago at $74.32 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's missing is the weekly timeframe…日线转向已经完成——低点于约 8 天前形成，价位74.32，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
As of 2026-09-29截至 2026-09-29
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-29
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
64
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+4.1% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-8.8% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
26th percentile第26百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-11-0538
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat in 3 of last 4 quarters近 4 季中 3 季超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 21.6%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | AAON | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 67.65x | 27.93 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.48% | 3.38 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.45% | 2.48 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 32.29x | 15.24 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.4B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 22.9%
Earnings per share每股收益
$1.292025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -2.8%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$7.3M2022
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
10.1%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 2/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.00
Current ratio流动比率2.63
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$0
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$18.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.3%
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件Its filings are available, but they do not break debt down by the year it comes due — every bucket below is unreported.已获取该公司的 SEC 文件，但文件中未按到期年度拆分债务 —— 以下各区间均未披露。
Next 12 months未来12个月
not reported未披露
Year 2第2年
not reported未披露
Year 3第3年
not reported未披露
Year 4第4年
not reported未披露
Year 5第5年
not reported未披露
After year 55年以后
not reported未披露
Not every company reports a year-by-year schedule. Nothing is being estimated in its place.并非所有公司都会披露逐年到期安排；此处不作任何估算替代。
A cash-flow scenario is unavailable until the filing inputs are verified.报告数据核实前，现金流情景暂不可用。
Capital-need coverage is not available for this issuer yet.该发行人的资本需求覆盖信息暂不可用。
Reported facts remain separate from the cash-flow scenario until identity and filing provenance are confirmed.在确认身份与报告来源之前，已披露事实与现金流情景保持分离。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$20.0M net (0 buyers, 5 sellers)-$20.0M 净值（0 买家，5 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giverny Capital | C | Holding持有 | 0.9% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. A new cycle low likely formed 8 day(s) ago (2026-09-15 @ 74.32): swing low in, price back above the 10-day average — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。新的周期低点可能已在 8 天前形成 （2026-09-15 @ 74.32）：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Sep 23, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 22, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 21, 2026
AAON broke down vs the marketAAON 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $76.40.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$76.40。
Sep 14, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Sep 14, 2026
AAON broke down vs the marketAAON 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $75.54.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$75.54。
Sep 11, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 9, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Sep 9, 2026
AAON broke down vs the marketAAON 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $77.02.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$77.02。
Sep 3, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 253 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
AAON, Inc. manufactures heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment for commercial and industrial indoor environments.AAON公司为商业和工业室内环境制造供暖、通风和空调设备。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
- Inventory build
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 67.7× | 27.9× | 8% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 32.3× | 15.2× | 9% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.5% | 3.4% | 16% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 0.5% | 2.5% | 7% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
43/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
6/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
65/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
53/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#164 / 263
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +16.1% | +1.3% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +11.8% | +0.9% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -29.7% | +6.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +9.4% | +22.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +12.7% | +13.8% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +1.4% | +18.5% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +62.3% | +87.8% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.01
Volatility rank波动率分位
26th pctile
Short interest空头占比
6.0% of float
Market cap市值
$7B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.32
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-39.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $515M | $535M | $889M | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.49 | $1.09 | $1.86 | $2.13 | $2.02 | $1.29 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $61M | $6M | $7M | — | — | — |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 30.3% | 25.8% | 26.7% | 34.1% | 33.1% | 26.7% |
| Net margin净利率 | 15.4% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 7.5% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 11.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | — | — | — |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Gross profit毛利润
$386M
Net income净利润
$108M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$534,000
Total assets总资产
$1.7B
Dividends paid股息支出
$33M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.08B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on assets资产回报率
6.4%
Profit growth利润增速
-36.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+43.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +218% vs sales +180%; receivables +563% vs sales +180% — demand & revenue-quality risk营运资本：存货 +218% 对销售 +180%；应收 +563% 对销售 +180%——需求与营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −3.6pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 3.6 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +56.4% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 56.4%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 7.73 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 7.73——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
64
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
99
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+14.1%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+4.1%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-8.8%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
Fired_UpFIRED_UP
Days compressed已压缩天数
7
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
25/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.69 | $0.52 | +32.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.48 | $0.31 | +54.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.39 | $0.45 | -13.3% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.37 | $0.33 | +12.1% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
3
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+6.3%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giverny Capital | C | Holding持有 | 0.9% | $26M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 9, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 753.6, 'from_period': '2024-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-14', 'available_on_first': '2024-08-12', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 9, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 753.6, 'from_period': '2024-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-14', 'available_on_first': '2024-08-12', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$20.0M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 5
Short interest空头占流通盘
6.0%
Days to cover回补天数
4.5
Short interest change空头变化
+3.8%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P HomebuildersSPDR S&P Homebuilders
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Apr · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Jun · 33%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +0.6% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +10.9% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 67% | +3.0% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 100% | +13.4% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +6.0% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -8.6% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 67% | +2.3% | 3 |
| Aug8月 | 75% | +5.5% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 75% | +13.4% | 4 |
| Oct10月 | 67% | +6.0% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +14.6% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 33% | -14.1% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。