Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / AAON
AAON · Industrials
AAON US listed · USD美股 · 美元
AAON, Inc. manufactures heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment for commercial and industrial indoor environments.AAON公司为商业和工业室内环境制造供暖、通风和空调设备。
Mid cap中盘 · $7B
Industrials
S&P 400标普400中盘
Broken growth成长受损
$87.67
+$2.44 · +2.86%
52w low52周低 $71.06high高 $152
Leader · accounting warning — verify before buying领先 · 财务质量警示 — 买入前先核实
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~12+ trading days. Wait for support to hold, or for the next low to set up.这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 12+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
37
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-22.3% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-12.4% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
85th percentile第85百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 4 analysts预期上调 — 4 位分析师
Mixed — beat 2 of last 4 quarters表现不稳 — 近 4 季中 2 季超预期
Post-earnings drift: -4.7% (20d)财报后漂移：-4.7%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 6.2%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | AAON | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 66.56x | 30.23 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.50% | 3.11 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.46% | 2.22 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 31.77x | 16.47 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.4B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 22.9%
Earnings per share每股收益
$1.292025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -2.8%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$7.3M2022
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
10.1%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 2/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.00
Current ratio流动比率2.63
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$0
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$18.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.3%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
AAON daily MACD crossed upAAON 日线MACD上穿
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$20.0M net (0 buyers, 5 sellers)-$20.0M 净值（0 买家，5 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giverny Capital | C | New position新建仓 | 0.6% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY. Mixed structure. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell准备。结构混合。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 13, 2026
AAON daily MACD crossed upAAON 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $87.67.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$87.67。
Aug 11, 2026
AAON daily MACD crossed downAAON 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $85.78.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$85.78。
Aug 7, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Aug 7, 2026
AAON daily MACD crossed upAAON 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $94.83.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$94.83。
Aug 5, 2026
AAON broke down vs the marketAAON 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $93.15.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$93.15。
Aug 3, 2026
AAON StochRSI turned up from oversoldAAON StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $92.56.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$92.56。
Jul 29, 2026
AAON printed a daily-cycle lowAAON 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $84.87.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$84.87。
Jul 29, 2026
AAON broke down vs the marketAAON 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $84.87.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$84.87。
Jul 28, 2026
AAON lost its 200-day averageAAON 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $93.74.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$93.74。
Jul 28, 2026
AAON RSI reached oversoldAAON RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $93.74.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$93.74。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 250 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
AAON, Inc. manufactures heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment for commercial and industrial indoor environments.AAON公司为商业和工业室内环境制造供暖、通风和空调设备。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
- Inventory build
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 66.6× | 30.2× | 12% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 31.8× | 16.5× | 13% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.5% | 3.1% | 19% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 0.0% | 5.5% | 5% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 0.5% | 2.2% | 11% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
85/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
2/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
24/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
53/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#92 / 262
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -2.9% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -22.4% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -35.2% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -13.1% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +10.9% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -0.3% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +38.4% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.17
Volatility rank波动率分位
85th pctile
Short interest空头占比
4.9% of float
Market cap市值
$7B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.32
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-40.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $515M | $535M | $889M | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.49 | $1.09 | $1.86 | $2.13 | $2.02 | $1.29 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $61M | $6M | $7M | — | — | — |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 30.3% | 25.8% | 26.7% | 34.1% | 33.1% | 26.7% |
| Net margin净利率 | 15.4% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 7.5% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 11.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | — | — | — |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Gross profit毛利润
$386M
Net income净利润
$108M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$534,000
Total assets总资产
$1.7B
Dividends paid股息支出
$33M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.08B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on assets资产回报率
6.4%
Profit growth利润增速
-36.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+43.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +218% vs sales +180%; receivables +563% vs sales +180% — demand & revenue-quality risk营运资本：存货 +218% 对销售 +180%；应收 +563% 对销售 +180%——需求与营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −3.6pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 3.6 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +56.4% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 56.4%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 7.64 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 7.64——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
37
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
58
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-8.2%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-22.3%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-12.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
88/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $0.48 | $0.31 | +54.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.39 | $0.45 | -13.3% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.37 | $0.33 | +12.1% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.22 | $0.31 | -29.0% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
4
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+14.8%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+4
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giverny Capital | C | New position新建仓 | 0.6% | $17M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 8, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 448.8, 'from_period': '2024-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-15', 'available_on_first': '2024-08-12', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 8, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 448.8, 'from_period': '2024-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-15', 'available_on_first': '2024-08-12', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$20.0M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 5
Short interest空头占流通盘
4.9%
Days to cover回补天数
3.3
Short interest change空头变化
+0.1%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P HomebuildersSPDR S&P Homebuilders
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Apr · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Jun · 33%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +0.6% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +10.9% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 67% | +3.0% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 100% | +13.4% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +6.0% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -8.6% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 75% | +10.3% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 50% | +1.9% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 67% | +12.8% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 67% | +6.0% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +14.6% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 33% | -14.1% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。