Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / — / ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc · —
ARI US listed · USD美股 · 美元
—
Russell 2000罗素2000
Mixed profile混合特征
$6.91
-$0.15 · -1.42%
52w low52周低 $6.91high高 $11.34
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 6.5.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 6.5 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
56
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.3% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+4.3% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
74th percentile第74百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Mixed — beat 2 of last 4 quarters表现不稳 — 近 4 季中 2 季超预期
Post-earnings drift: -4.3% (20d)财报后漂移：-4.3%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 306.1%
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$271.6M2025
20202025
Earnings per share每股收益
$0.812025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 140.8%
Net margin净利率
46.7%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
52.5%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/6
Return on equity股本回报率 7%
Clean稳健
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$0
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$13.6M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.6%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +14.5%空头仓位变动 +14.5%
Technical技术面
ARI broke down vs the marketARI 相对市场走弱
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$0.1M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$0.1M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 4, 2026
ARI broke down vs the marketARI 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $6.79.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$6.79。
Aug 4, 2026
ARI daily MACD crossed upARI 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $6.79.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$6.79。
Aug 3, 2026
ARI StochRSI turned up from oversoldARI StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $6.81.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$6.81。
Jul 31, 2026
ARI reclaimed its 200-day averageARI 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $6.62.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$6.62。
Jul 30, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 30, 2026
ARI lost its 200-day averageARI 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $6.50.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$6.50。
Jul 30, 2026
ARI printed a daily-cycle lowARI 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $6.50.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$6.50。
Jul 29, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 29, 2026
ARI broke down vs the marketARI 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $6.60.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$6.60。
Jul 29, 2026
ARI daily MACD crossed downARI 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $6.60.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$6.60。
Jul 27, 2026
ARI broke down vs the marketARI 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $6.69.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$6.69。
Jul 22, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 22, 2026
ARI broke down vs the marketARI 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $6.78.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$6.78。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 148 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.5% | +1.4% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -5.5% | -1.7% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -2.3% | +13.6% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +7.9% | +9.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +7.9% | +9.3% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +12.8% | +21.1% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.47
Volatility rank波动率分位
74th pctile
Short interest空头占比
4.0% of float
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$0.91
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-4.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | — | $285M | $304M | $345M | $304M | $272M |
| EPS每股收益 | $0.01 | $1.46 | $1.68 | $0.29 | $-0.97 | $0.81 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | — | 78.6% | 87.4% | 16.9% | -39.4% | 46.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$272M
Net income净利润
$127M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$143M
Total assets总资产
$9.9B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$1.9B
Dividends paid股息支出
$141M
Buybacks股票回购
$0
Shares outstanding总股本
0.14B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
6.8%
Return on assets资产回报率
1.3%
Asset growth资产增速
+17.7%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals elevated vs peers (earnings lean on non-cash items)盈利质量：应计利润高于同业（盈利依赖非现金项目）
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
56
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
88
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+2.3%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.3%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+4.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
49/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $0.20 | $0.27 | -25.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.24 | $0.25 | -4.0% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.27 | $0.02 | +1250.0% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.24 | $0.23 | +4.3% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
1
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$0.1M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 1
Short interest空头占流通盘
4.0%
Days to cover回补天数
1.0
Short interest change空头变化
+14.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。