Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Tech / CIEN
Ciena · Tech
CIEN US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Ciena Corporation is an American optical networking systems and software company based in Hanover, Maryland. The company has been described as a vital player in optical connectivity.Ciena Corporation 是一家美国光网络系统及软件公司，总部位于马里兰州汉诺威。该公司被描述为光连接领域的关键参与者。
Large cap大盘 · $63B
Tech
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
$442.79
+$10.74 · +2.49%
52w low52周低 $84.89high高 $647
Leader · poor entry — wait for a base领先 · 入场点欠佳 — 等待筑底
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 330.37.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 330.37 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
57
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+2.5% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+22.3% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
82th percentile第82百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-09-0320
Estimates being raised — 17 analysts预期上调 — 17 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -13.3% (20d)财报后漂移：-13.3%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 25.6%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | CIEN | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 507.82x | 42.55 | |
| P/B市净率 | 22.43x | 6.08 | |
| P/S市销率 | 13.13x | 5.24 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.20% | 1.88 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.06% | 2.96 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.53% | 2.07 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 209.10x | 30.21 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 94.14x | 31.99 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$4.8B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 6.2%
Earnings per share每股收益
$0.852025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -18.2%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$665.3M2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
42.0%
Operating margin营业利润率
4.1%
Net margin净利率
2.6%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
16.9%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 7/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 4%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.47
Current ratio流动比率2.73
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$334.5M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$184.5M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.8%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #1 of 49 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 1 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
CIEN broke down vs the marketCIEN 相对市场走弱
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±5.56%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±12.43%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$418
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.1%
Flow:资金流向： $45M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 91 fresh positions; P/C 1.04; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $45M；0DTE占0%；91个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.04；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$67.4M net (0 buyers, 9 sellers)-$67.4M 净值（0 买家，9 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone Pine Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 2.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | trimtrim | 1.2% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 10, 2026
CIEN broke down vs the marketCIEN 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $387.70.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$387.70。
Aug 3, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Aug 3, 2026
CIEN daily MACD crossed upCIEN 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $390.76.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$390.76。
Jul 30, 2026
CIEN reclaimed its 200-day averageCIEN 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $372.07.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$372.07。
Jul 30, 2026
CIEN StochRSI turned up from oversoldCIEN StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $372.07.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$372.07。
Jul 29, 2026
CIEN lost its 200-day averageCIEN 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $330.37.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$330.37。
Jul 29, 2026
CIEN printed a daily-cycle lowCIEN 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $330.37.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$330.37。
Jul 21, 2026
CIEN StochRSI turned up from oversoldCIEN StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $408.73.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$408.73。
Jul 16, 2026
CIEN daily MACD crossed downCIEN 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $388.81.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$388.81。
Jul 15, 2026
CIEN broke down vs the marketCIEN 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $418.46.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$418.46。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 123 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Ciena Corporation is an American optical networking systems and software company based in Hanover, Maryland. The company has been described as a vital player in optical connectivity.Ciena Corporation 是一家美国光网络系统及软件公司，总部位于马里兰州汉诺威。该公司被描述为光连接领域的关键参与者。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI infrastructure (compute, memory, networking)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 基础设施（算力／内存／网络）的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 507.8× | 42.5× | 5% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 22.4× | 6.1× | 16% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 13.1× | 5.2× | 17% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 209.1× | 30.2× | 4% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.2% | 1.9% | 19% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.3% | 3.7% | 15% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 0.5% | 2.1% | 20% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
98/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
7/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
92/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
98/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#13 / 222
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +9.7% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -0.9% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -20.1% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +45.7% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +80.0% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +367.8% | +21.6% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.62
Volatility rank波动率分位
82th pctile
Short interest空头占比
2.6% of float
Market cap市值
$63B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$0.87
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-29.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $3.5B | $3.6B | $3.6B | $4.4B | $4.0B | $4.8B |
| EPS每股收益 | $2.32 | $3.19 | $1.00 | $1.71 | $0.58 | $0.85 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $411M | $462M | $-259M | $62M | $378M | $665M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 46.8% | 47.6% | 43.0% | 42.8% | 42.8% | 42.0% |
| Net margin净利率 | 10.2% | 13.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 11.6% | 12.8% | -7.1% | 1.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$4.8B
Gross profit毛利润
$2.0B
Net income净利润
$123M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$806M
Total assets总资产
$5.9B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.8B
Long-term debt长期负债
$1.5B
Buybacks股票回购
$335M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.14B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
4.4%
Return on assets资产回报率
2.1%
Debt / assets负债/资产
25.9%
Profit growth利润增速
+46.9%
Asset growth资产增速
+5.7%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: inventory +140% vs sales +35% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +140% 对销售 +35%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −4.8pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 4.8 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 12.62 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 12.62——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
57
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
91
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+12.9%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+2.5%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+22.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
47/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $1.34 | $1.20 | +11.7% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.08 | $0.89 | +21.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.64 | $0.52 | +23.1% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.41 | $0.28 | +46.4% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
17
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+14.1%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+17
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$470
Put wall看跌期权墙
$418
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$418
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$450
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$400
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+4.0%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-0.1%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.1pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone Pine Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 2.5% | $314M |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | Trimming减持 | 1.2% | $90M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': 1245.5, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-14', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 2]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': 1245.5, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-14', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 2]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$67.4M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 9
Short interest空头占流通盘
2.6%
Days to cover回补天数
1.6
Short interest change空头变化
-7.1%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。