Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Disc.
CMG US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., also known simply as Chipotle, is an American multinational chain of fast casual restaurants specializing in bowls, tacos, and Mission burritos made to order in front of the customer. As of December 2025, Chipotle has 4,000...Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.，简称Chipotle，是一家美国跨国快速休闲餐饮连锁店，专营在顾客面前现做的碗装食品、玉米卷和Mission风格卷饼。截至2025年12月，Chipotle拥有4000家门店。
Large cap大盘 · $43B
Broken growth成长受损
Consumer Disc.
S&P 500标普500
$33.13
-$1.31 · -3.80%
52w low52周低 $27.59high高 $54.68
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and oscillators are already extended/overbought — not a safe entry. Wait for…筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且摆动指标已过热——此处入场风险较高。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.8% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-6.0% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
84th percentile第84百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-299days to go天后公布
Estimates being cut预期下调
Post-earnings drift: -9.4% (20d)财报后漂移：-9.4%（20日）
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | CMG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 28.09x | 19.97 | |
| P/B市净率 | 15.24x | 2.89 | |
| P/S市销率 | 3.62x | 1.21 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.56% | 4.57 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.35% | 5.73 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 5.62% | 4.27 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 18.63x | 11.39 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 29.81x | 16.57 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 14.8%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -38.1%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
16.2%
Net margin净利率
12.9%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
17.7%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/7
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 54%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.15
Current ratio流动比率1.23
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$2.4B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$119.5M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-3.9%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Consumer Discretionary (Equal-Weight) theme — #34 of 46 themes「非必需消费（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 34 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
CMG daily MACD crossed downCMG 日线MACD下穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.48%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±7.78%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$35
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.8%
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$7.2M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$7.2M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. Buyers rejected the 2026-06-22 low (swing low printed) but price hasn't reclaimed its 10-day average — first box ticked, not all. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。买方拒绝了 2026-06-22 的低点（摆动低点已现），但价格尚未收复 10 日均线——第一项条件达成，并非全部。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 20, 2026
CMG daily MACD crossed downCMG 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $33.13.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$33.13。
Jul 15, 2026
CMG lost its 200-day averageCMG 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $34.63.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$34.63。
Jul 13, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 13, 2026
CMG reclaimed its 200-day averageCMG 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $36.63.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$36.63。
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 9, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 81 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., also known simply as Chipotle, is an American multinational chain of fast casual restaurants specializing in bowls, tacos, and Mission burritos made to order in front of the customer. As of December 2025, Chipotle has 4,000...Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.，简称Chipotle，是一家美国跨国快速休闲餐饮连锁店，专营在顾客面前现做的碗装食品、玉米卷和Mission风格卷饼。截至2025年12月，Chipotle拥有4000家门店。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 28.1× | 20.0× | 26% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 15.2× | 2.9× | 10% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 3.6× | 1.2× | 10% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 18.6× | 11.4× | 19% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.6% | 4.6% | 35% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.9% | 8.6% | 17% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 5.6% | 4.3% | 67% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
7/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
21/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
14/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
6/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#154 / 192
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -9.6% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +2.0% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -8.1% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -18.6% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -11.6% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -38.6% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.83
Volatility rank波动率分位
84th pctile
Short interest空头占比
4.0% of float
Market cap市值
$43B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.18
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-38.6%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $6.0B | $7.5B | $8.6B | $9.9B | $11.3B | $11.9B |
| EPS每股收益 | $12.52 | $22.90 | $32.04 | $44.34 | $1.11 | $1.14 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $290M | $840M | $844M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.4B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | 5.9% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 4.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 12.1% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$11.9B
Net income净利润
$1.5B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.1B
Total assets总资产
$9.0B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.8B
Buybacks股票回购
$2.4B
Shares outstanding总股本
1.30B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
54.3%
Return on assets资产回报率
17.1%
Profit growth利润增速
+0.1%
Asset growth资产增速
-2.3%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Capital discipline: disciplined growth, returning cash资本纪律：增长克制、回报股东
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 6.37 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 6.37——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
48
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
10
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.2%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.8%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-6.0%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
66/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
5
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-0.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$35
Put wall看跌期权墙
$30
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$35
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$35
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$30
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-4.4%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-0.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $175M |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $14,501 |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 2
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2, 0, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2, 0, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$7.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 2
Short interest空头占流通盘
4.0%
Days to cover回补天数
2.3
Short interest change空头变化
+3.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。