Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / FIX
Comfort Systems USA · Industrials
FIX US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is an American company that provides mechanical and electrical contracting services, primarily HVAC, plumbing, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring and fire protection, and installation and servicing of electrical systems.Comfort Systems USA, Inc. 是一家美国公司，提供机械和电气承包服务，主要包括暖通空调、管道、管道系统及控制、非现场施工、监控和消防，以及电气系统的安装和维护。
Large cap大盘 · $41B
Industrials
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
$1160.86
Regular quote常规时段报价
-$118.51 · -9.26%
Extended quote unavailable. Showing the regular quote.盘前盘后报价暂不可用，现显示常规时段报价。
Pre-market盘前
·
52w low52周低 $790high高 $2,117
Strong name · wrong tape — wait for a base强势个股 · 趋势不利 — 等待筑底
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
As of 2026-10-26截至 2026-10-26
Company news公司新闻
The latest reporting最新报道
One story, with the reporting behind it.将同一事件汇总，保留各来源报道。
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-10-26
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
21
Oversold超卖区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-27.8% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-27.4% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
69th percentile第69百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 7 analysts预期上调 — 7 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -6.7% (20d)财报后漂移：-6.7%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 34.6%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | FIX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 39.93x | 27.98 | |
| P/B市净率 | 16.68x | 3.68 | |
| P/S市销率 | 22.30x | 2.09 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.50% | 3.35 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.53% | 4.14 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.70% | 2.35 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 29.05x | 15.88 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 39.59x | 23.00 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$9.1B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 26.1%
Earnings per share每股收益
$28.882025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 47.8%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$1.0B2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
22.0%
Operating margin营业利润率
14.4%
Net margin净利率
55.8%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
64.8%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 7/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 42%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.61
Current ratio流动比率1.21
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$216.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$21.8M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-1.1%
Debt coming due到期债务
FY2025 10-KIn the 12-month bucket following fiscal period end 2025-12-31, it reported $6.2M due — about 4% of its disclosed principal.在财年期末 2025-12-31 之后12个月的区间内，已披露到期本金为 $6.2M，约占其披露本金的 4%。
All maturity buckets are measured from fiscal period end 2025-12-31, not from today.所有到期区间均从财年期末 2025-12-31 起算，而非从今天起算。
First 12 months after period end报告期末之后首12个月
$6.2M
Year 2第2年
$24.2M
Year 3第3年
$14.3M
Year 4第4年
$545.0K
Year 5第5年
$100.0M
After year 55年以后
not reported未披露
Cash reported at 2025-12-31: $981898000.截至 2025-12-31 披露的现金：$981898000。 Operating cash flow exceeded or equaled equipment spending over 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31; no cash burn to measure.在 2025-01-01 至 2025-12-31 期间，经营现金流不低于设备支出，无可衡量的现金消耗。
Capital-need coverage is partial; incomplete or incompatible filing inputs are not combined.资本需求覆盖信息不完整；不会合并不完整或不兼容的报告数据。
Any available cash-flow scenario is context only. Missing or incompatible inputs are not replaced with zero or a financing forecast.可用现金流情景仅供参考；缺失或不兼容的输入不以零值或融资预测替代。
Sources and cash-flow calculation来源与现金流计算
Figures are XBRL facts from one filing — no two years are mixed. Filing数据取自同一份文件中的 XBRL 事实，不跨文件拼接。文件
0001104659-26-017530, period ending报告期截至 2025-12-31, unit单位 USD.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-25T08:19:03.501937+00:00.
5/6 buckets reported.个区间有披露。
LongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInNextTwelveMonthsLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearTwoLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearThreeLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFourLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFiveLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalAfterYearFive— period_mismatch
Annual period年度区间 2025-01-01 — 2025-12-31 · USD · 10-K · 0001104659-26-017530 · Filed提交日期 2026-02-19.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-25T08:19:03.501937+00:00 · Evaluated as of评估截至 2026-10-26.
- Reported operating cash flow已披露经营活动现金流: $1186356000
- Reported equipment spending (capex outflow)已披露设备支出（资本开支流出）: $154903000
- Derived free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex)计算所得自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）: $1031453000
Cash is the reported balance at period end. The runway scenario holds this annual cash-flow pace constant and excludes debt payments, restricted-cash adjustments and future financing.现金为期末已披露余额。现金跑道情景假设本年度现金流速度保持不变，不包括债务偿还、受限现金调整与未来融资。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #31 of 49 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 31 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
FIX RSI reached oversoldFIX RSI进入超卖
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.03%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±9.01%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-1.9%
Flow:资金流向： $4M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 3 fresh positions; P/C 1.47; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $4M；0DTE占0%；3个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.47；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$103.0M net (0 buyers, 7 sellers)-$103.0M 净值（0 买家，7 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coatue Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases)回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）
Oct 22, 2026
FIX RSI reached oversoldFIX RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $1,279.37.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$1,279.37。
Oct 14, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Oct 14, 2026
FIX lost its 200-day averageFIX 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $1,541.68.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$1,541.68。
Oct 14, 2026
FIX broke down vs the marketFIX 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $1,541.68.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$1,541.68。
Oct 13, 2026
FIX daily MACD crossed downFIX 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $1,626.64.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$1,626.64。
Oct 8, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Oct 5, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Oct 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Sep 30, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 157 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is an American company that provides mechanical and electrical contracting services, primarily HVAC, plumbing, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring and fire protection, and installation and servicing of electrical systems.Comfort Systems USA, Inc. 是一家美国公司，提供机械和电气承包服务，主要包括暖通空调、管道、管道系统及控制、非现场施工、监控和消防，以及电气系统的安装和维护。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for power & grid buildout云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——电力与电网建设的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 39.9× | 28.0× | 21% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 16.7× | 3.7× | 5% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 22.3× | 2.1× | 0% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 29.1× | 15.9× | 10% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.5% | 3.4% | 28% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.9% | 5.8% | 15% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 0.7% | 2.4% | 13% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
94/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
5/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
10/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
88/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#16 / 263
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -19.3% | -0.4% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -28.6% | -1.0% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -33.0% | +3.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -32.7% | +7.0% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +15.8% | +12.1% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +40.9% | +14.4% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.44
Volatility rank波动率分位
69th pctile
Short interest空头占比
2.4% of float
Market cap市值
$41B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$29.07
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-43.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $2.9B | $3.1B | $4.1B | $5.2B | $7.0B | $9.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | $4.09 | $3.93 | $6.82 | $9.01 | $14.60 | $28.88 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $262M | $158M | $253M | $545M | $738M | $1.0B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 19.1% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 19.0% | 21.0% | 24.1% |
| Net margin净利率 | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.2% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 9.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.3% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$1.8B
Gross profit毛利润
$403M
Net income净利润
$1.0B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$1.2B
Total assets总资产
$6.4B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.4B
Long-term debt长期负债
$139M
Dividends paid股息支出
$69M
Buybacks股票回购
$216M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.04B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
41.8%
Return on assets资产回报率
15.9%
Debt / assets负债/资产
2.2%
Profit growth利润增速
+95.7%
Asset growth资产增速
+36.7%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +524% vs sales +219% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +524% 对销售 +219%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: soft gross profitability vs peers定价能力：毛利能力弱于同业
- Capital discipline: assets +36.7% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +36.7%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 8.92 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 8.92——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
21
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
1
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-26.3%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-27.8%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-27.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
100/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $12.53 | $10.38 | +20.7% |
| Mar 2026 | $10.51 | $7.19 | +46.2% |
| Dec 2025 | $9.37 | $6.77 | +38.4% |
| Sep 2025 | $8.25 | $6.20 | +33.1% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
7
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+11.1%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+7
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Put wall看跌期权墙
$1,100
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$1,320
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$1,000
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-1.9%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coatue Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | $35M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 5, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2025-05-13', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 5, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2025-05-13', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$103.0M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 7
Short interest空头占流通盘
2.4%
Days to cover回补天数
2.6
Short interest change空头变化
-0.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。