Stocks股票 / Industrials / PAYX
Paychex · Industrials
PAYX US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Paychex, Inc. is an American company that provides human resources, payroll, and employee benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.佩切克斯公司（Paychex, Inc.）是一家美国企业，为中小型企业提供人力资源、薪资和员工福利外包服务。
Large cap大盘 · $41B
Cyclical周期股
Industrials
S&P 500标普500
$115.20
+$0.81 · +0.71%
52w low52周低 $83.07high高 $145
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (overbought). Don't chase; wait for a pullback to the 10-day…已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（已超买）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
73
Overbought超买区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+15.2% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+12.5% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
87th percentile第87百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-06-24Estimates being raised — 12 analysts预期上调 — 12 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: +18.0% (20d)财报后漂移：+18.0%（20日）
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | PAYX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 10.66x | 3.88 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.13% | 3.85 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 18.48x | 16.30 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 24.20x | 24.91 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 6.6%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 8.5%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
39.6%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.37
Current ratio流动比率1.28
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$104.5M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$111.8M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.3%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #15 of 46 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 15 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
PAYX RSI reached overboughtPAYX RSI进入超买
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.89%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.24%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$86
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.1%
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： +$0.2M net (2 buyers, 0 sellers)+$0.2M 净值（2 买家，0 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~19 day(s) ago @ 95.93) and overbought (daily RSI 73). A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 19 天前形成 @ 95.93）且已超买（日线 RSI 73）。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 16, 2026
PAYX RSI reached overboughtPAYX RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $114.70.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$114.70。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 7, 2026
PAYX took relative-strength leadershipPAYX 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $108.12.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$108.12。
Jul 6, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 2, 2026
PAYX reclaimed its 200-day averagePAYX 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $106.35.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$106.35。
Jul 2, 2026
PAYX took relative-strength leadershipPAYX 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $106.35.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$106.35。
Jul 2, 2026
PAYX daily MACD crossed upPAYX 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $106.35.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$106.35。
Jun 29, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BUY ZONE接近高点 → 买入区
BUY买入
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 94 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Paychex, Inc. is an American company that provides human resources, payroll, and employee benefits outsourcing services for small- to medium-sized businesses.佩切克斯公司（Paychex, Inc.）是一家美国企业，为中小型企业提供人力资源、薪资和员工福利外包服务。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book市净率 | 10.7× | 3.9× | 14% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 18.5× | 16.3× | 38% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
8/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
87/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
48/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
15/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#230 / 250
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +4.0% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +17.3% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +24.6% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +10.0% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +8.6% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -16.4% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.10
Volatility rank波动率分位
87th pctile
Short interest空头占比
5.7% of float
Market cap市值
$41B
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-19.6%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $4.0B | $4.1B | $4.6B | $5.0B | $5.3B | $5.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $3.04 | $3.03 | $3.84 | $4.30 | $4.67 | $4.58 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 68.3% | 68.7% | 70.6% | 71.0% | 72.0% | 72.4% |
| Net margin净利率 | — | — | — | — | 32.0% | 29.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 32.5% | 28.2% | 29.8% | 31.1% | 32.9% | 30.7% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Total assets总资产
$16.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$3.9B
Long-term debt长期负债
$4.6B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.36B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Debt / assets负债/资产
27.6%
Asset growth资产增速
+56.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Pricing power: gross margin +4.1pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 4.1 个百分点
- Capital discipline: assets +56.5% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +56.5%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 3.11 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 3.11——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
73
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
90
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+9.6%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+15.2%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+12.5%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
100/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
12
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+1.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+8
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$115
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$86
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$115
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$110
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+24.7%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-3.1%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
+$0.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
2 : 0
Short interest空头占流通盘
5.7%
Days to cover回补天数
4.5
Short interest change空头变化
-1.2%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。