Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / FIX
Comfort Systems USA · Industrials
FIX US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is an American company that provides mechanical and electrical contracting services, primarily HVAC, plumbing, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring and fire protection, and installation and servicing of electrical systems.Comfort Systems USA, Inc. 是一家美国公司，提供机械和电气承包服务，主要包括暖通空调、管道、管道系统及控制、非现场施工、监控和消防，以及电气系统的安装和维护。
Large cap大盘 · $61B
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
Industrials
S&P 500标普500
$1729.69
+$31.85 · +1.88%
52w low52周低 $669high高 $2,117
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Stretched/late — protect gains and don't start new positions; let the next low set up first.已拉伸／晚期——保护利润，不要新开仓；先等下一个低点构筑成形。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-08-03
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅作背景参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅作背景参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-03
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-4.8% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+23.8% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
78th percentile第78百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-23Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | FIX | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 59.50x | 29.65 | |
| P/B市净率 | 24.85x | 3.95 | |
| P/S市销率 | 33.23x | 2.18 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.68% | 3.17 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.70% | 3.86 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.47% | 2.31 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 43.58x | 16.04 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 58.99x | 24.37 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 26.1%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 47.8%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Gross margin毛利率
22.0%
Operating margin营业利润率
14.4%
Net margin净利率
55.8%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
64.8%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 7/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 42%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.61
Current ratio流动比率1.21
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$216.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$21.8M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-1.1%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #17 of 47 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 47 个主题中第 17 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +12.4%空头仓位变动 +12.4%
Technical技术面
FIX StochRSI turned up from oversoldFIX StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.44%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±9.92%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$1867
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-8.5%
Flow:资金流向： $7M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 5 fresh positions; P/C 1.4; ~leans bearish (direction approx)成交权利金 $7M；0DTE占0%；5个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.4；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$82.2M net (0 buyers, 11 sellers)-$82.2M 净值（0 买家，11 卖家）
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → NEARING A HIGH下跌趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. Late in the daily cycle (day 35 of ~23-44) — odds favor a dip into the next cycle low from here even with the trend intact止盈。处于日线周期晚期（约 23-44 天中的第 35 天）——即便趋势完好，从此处概率上仍倾向于回落至下一个周期低点
Jul 30, 2026
FIX StochRSI turned up from oversoldFIX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $1,697.84.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$1,697.84。
Jul 29, 2026
FIX broke down vs the marketFIX 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $1,519.96.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$1,519.96。
Jul 28, 2026
BOTTOMING → DOWNTREND筑底中 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 28, 2026
FIX daily MACD crossed downFIX 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $1,626.32.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$1,626.32。
Jul 22, 2026
FIX daily MACD crossed upFIX 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $1,791.06.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$1,791.06。
Jul 21, 2026
DOWNTREND → BOTTOMING下跌趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 21, 2026
FIX StochRSI turned up from oversoldFIX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $1,773.51.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$1,773.51。
Jul 16, 2026
BOTTOMING → DOWNTREND筑底中 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 13, 2026
FIX StochRSI turned up from oversoldFIX StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $1,732.03.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$1,732.03。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 126 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is an American company that provides mechanical and electrical contracting services, primarily HVAC, plumbing, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring and fire protection, and installation and servicing of electrical systems.Comfort Systems USA, Inc. 是一家美国公司，提供机械和电气承包服务，主要包括暖通空调、管道、管道系统及控制、非现场施工、监控和消防，以及电气系统的安装和维护。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for power & grid buildout云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——电力与电网建设的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 59.5× | 29.6× | 13% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 24.9× | 4.0× | 2% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 33.2× | 2.2× | 0% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 43.6× | 16.0× | 6% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 21% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.9% | 5.6% | 10% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 0.5% | 2.3% | 12% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
96/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
31/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
92/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
95/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#8 / 261
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.2% | +1.1% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -7.3% | +0.2% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -7.3% | +3.7% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +51.6% | +8.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +72.5% | +9.6% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +146.5% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.47
Volatility rank波动率分位
78th pctile
Short interest空头占比
2.4% of float
Market cap市值
$61B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$29.07
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-16.3%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $2.9B | $3.1B | $4.1B | $5.2B | $7.0B | $9.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | $4.09 | $3.93 | $6.82 | $9.01 | $14.60 | $28.88 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $262M | $158M | $253M | $545M | $738M | $1.0B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 19.1% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 19.0% | 21.0% | 24.1% |
| Net margin净利率 | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.2% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 9.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.3% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$1.8B
Gross profit毛利润
$403M
Net income净利润
$1.0B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$1.2B
Total assets总资产
$6.4B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.4B
Long-term debt长期负债
$139M
Dividends paid股息支出
$69M
Buybacks股票回购
$216M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.04B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
41.8%
Return on assets资产回报率
15.9%
Debt / assets负债/资产
2.2%
Profit growth利润增速
+95.7%
Asset growth资产增速
+36.7%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +524% vs sales +219% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +524% 对销售 +219%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: soft gross profitability vs peers定价能力：毛利能力弱于同业
- Capital discipline: assets +36.7% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +36.7%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 11.93 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 11.93——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
49
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
74
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+0.4%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-4.8%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+23.8%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
33/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
1
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+14.6%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$1,740
Put wall看跌期权墙
$1,600
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$1,867
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$1,740
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$1,600
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-9.9%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-8.5%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.2pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $98M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 6, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2025-05-12', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 6, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2025-05-12', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$82.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 11
Short interest空头占流通盘
2.4%
Days to cover回补天数
1.9
Short interest change空头变化
+12.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。