Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Comm. Services / LUMN
Lumen Technologies · Comm. Services
LUMN US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Lumen Technologies, Inc. is an American telecommunications company headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.Lumen Technologies, Inc. 是一家美国电信公司，总部位于路易斯安那州门罗。
Mid cap中盘 · $7B
Comm. Services
S&P 600标普600小盘Russell 2000罗素2000
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
$6.40
+$0.11 · +1.75%
52w low52周低 $3.74high高 $12.30
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 5.9.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 5.9 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
46
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-12.2% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-20.4% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
38th percentile第38百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | LUMN | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S市销率 | 0.53x | 1.85 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -26.50% | 3.17 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 5.65% | 5.74 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 2.87x | 12.42 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 17.69x | 12.47 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$12.4B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -9.7%
Earnings per share每股收益
$-1.752025
20202025
Free cash flow自由现金流
$371.0M2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
-6.5%
Net margin净利率
-14.0%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
38.2%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 3/8
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 156%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.52
Current ratio流动比率1.80
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$48.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+1.1%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： +$0.1M net (1 buyers, 1 sellers)+$0.1M 净值（1 买家，1 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; investor cycle failed (broke its start low)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. The daily cycle has also failed (broke its own start low), which tilts the odds toward failure here高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。日线周期同样已经失败（跌破其自身起始低点），此处概率更偏向失败
Aug 12, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Aug 11, 2026
LUMN broke down vs the marketLUMN 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $6.38.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$6.38。
Aug 5, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Aug 5, 2026
LUMN broke down vs the marketLUMN 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $6.08.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$6.08。
Jul 31, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 31, 2026
LUMN broke down vs the marketLUMN 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $6.38.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$6.38。
Jul 30, 2026
Death cross on LUMNLUMN 死叉
The 50-day average crossed below the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bearish trend signal. $6.56.50日均线下穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看空趋势信号。$6.56。
Jul 30, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 24, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 24, 2026
LUMN broke down vs the marketLUMN 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $6.34.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$6.34。
Jul 21, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 238 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Lumen Technologies, Inc. is an American telecommunications company headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.Lumen Technologies, Inc. 是一家美国电信公司，总部位于路易斯安那州门罗。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales市销率 | 0.5× | 1.9× | 94% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 2.9× | 12.4× | 94% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | -26.5% | 3.2% | 9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 72.2% | 12.5% | 97% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
86/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
3/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
20/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
91/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#14 / 56
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +8.5% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +0.5% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -36.3% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -23.7% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -16.8% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +48.5% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +253.6% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.88
Volatility rank波动率分位
38th pctile
Short interest空头占比
6.1% of float
Market cap市值
$7B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$-1.70
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-45.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $20.7B | $19.7B | $17.5B | $14.6B | $13.1B | $12.4B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-1.14 | $1.91 | $-1.54 | $-10.48 | $-0.06 | $-1.75 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $2.8B | $3.6B | $1.7B | $-940M | $1.1B | $371M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 56.9% | 56.9% | 55.0% | 50.9% | 48.9% | 46.5% |
| Net margin净利率 | -5.9% | 10.3% | -8.9% | -70.7% | -0.4% | -14.0% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 13.5% | 18.3% | 9.8% | -6.5% | 8.4% | 3.0% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$12.4B
Net income净利润
$-1.7B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$4.7B
Total assets总资产
$34.3B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$-1.1B
Shares outstanding总股本
1.03B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
155.7%
Return on assets资产回报率
-5.1%
Asset growth资产增速
+2.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin −10.4pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 10.4 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z -0.29 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z -0.29——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
46
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
59
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+0.5%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-12.2%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-20.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
8/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-1.2%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
+$0.1M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
1 : 1
Short interest空头占流通盘
6.1%
Days to cover回补天数
5.8
Short interest change空头变化
-1.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
May · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Mar · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 33% | -5.1% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -3.3% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 0% | -2.7% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 33% | -6.6% | 3 |
| May5月 | 100% | +11.9% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -14.7% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 50% | +2.2% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 75% | +14.6% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 67% | +23.4% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 67% | +4.9% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +0.8% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 33% | -2.4% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。