Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Staples / STZ
Constellation Brands · Staples
STZ US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Constellation Brands, Inc. is an American producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits.Constellation Brands, Inc. 是一家美国啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒的生产商和营销商。
Large cap大盘 · $21B
Staples
Dividend / defensive高股息防御
$122.45
-$1.36 · -1.10%
52w low52周低 $119high高 $168
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
As of 2026-09-14截至 2026-09-14
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
34
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-6.7% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-15.0% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
83th percentile第83百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-10-0521
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 9.7%
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | STZ | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 12.40x | 23.05 | |
| P/B市净率 | 2.71x | 3.10 | |
| P/S市销率 | 2.29x | 1.20 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 8.07% | 3.90 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 8.58% | 5.08 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 7.84% | 3.03 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 9.90x | 12.89 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 11.66x | 19.29 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$9.1B2026
20212026
5-yr growth5年复合增速 1.2%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$1.8B2026
20212026
Gross margin毛利率
51.6%
Operating margin营业利润率
29.8%
Net margin净利率
18.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
29.2%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/8
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Return on equity股本回报率 22%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA3.25
Current ratio流动比率1.08
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$924.1M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$67.7M
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件We do not have an SEC filing record for this listing.我们目前没有该证券的 SEC 备案记录。
This panel only reads filings an issuer makes with the SEC, and this listing has not been matched to one.本面板仅读取发行人向 SEC 提交的文件，该证券尚未匹配到对应的备案主体。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Consumer Staples (Equal-Weight) theme — #37 of 49 themes「必需消费（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 37 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +10.6%空头仓位变动 +10.6%
Technical技术面
STZ made a new 52-week lowSTZ 创52周新低
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.25%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.02%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$131
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.7%
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$1.0M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$1.0M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases). Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Sep 8, 2026
STZ made a new 52-week lowSTZ 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $120.98.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$120.98。
Sep 8, 2026
STZ RSI reached oversoldSTZ RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $120.98.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$120.98。
Sep 2, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Aug 31, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Aug 28, 2026
STZ daily MACD crossed downSTZ 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $130.69.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$130.69。
Aug 27, 2026
STZ broke down vs the marketSTZ 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $131.43.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$131.43。
Aug 20, 2026
STZ StochRSI turned up from oversoldSTZ StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $134.14.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$134.14。
Aug 17, 2026
STZ broke down vs the marketSTZ 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $130.56.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$130.56。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 119 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Constellation Brands, Inc. is an American producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits.Constellation Brands, Inc. 是一家美国啤酒、葡萄酒和烈酒的生产商和营销商。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 12.4× | 23.1× | 87% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 2.7× | 3.1× | 54% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 2.3× | 1.2× | 27% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 9.9× | 12.9× | 62% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 8.1% | 3.9% | 90% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 72% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 7.8% | 3.0% | 85% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
12/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
15/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
11/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
22/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#39 / 74
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -4.5% | -0.8% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -8.6% | -1.1% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -17.5% | +3.3% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -17.9% | +15.7% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -12.1% | +12.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -12.5% | +17.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.03
Volatility rank波动率分位
83th pctile
Market cap市值
$21B
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-26.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | 20262026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $8.6B | $8.8B | $9.5B | $10.0B | $10.2B | $9.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.9B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $1.8B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 51.8% | 53.4% | 50.5% | 50.4% | 52.1% | 51.6% |
| Net margin净利率 | 23.2% | -0.5% | -0.8% | 17.3% | -0.8% | 18.5% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 22.5% | 19.0% | 18.2% | 15.2% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$9.1B
Gross profit毛利润
$4.7B
Net income净利润
$1.7B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.7B
Total assets总资产
$21.7B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$7.7B
Long-term debt长期负债
$10.3B
Dividends paid股息支出
$716M
Buybacks股票回购
$924M
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
21.9%
Return on assets资产回报率
7.8%
Debt / assets负债/资产
47.4%
Asset growth资产增速
-4.9%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin −0.2pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 0.2 个百分点
- Capital discipline: disciplined growth, returning cash资本纪律：增长克制、回报股东
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.64 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.64——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
34
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
35
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-6.2%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-6.7%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-15.0%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
79/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $3.43 | $3.22 | +6.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.90 | $1.74 | +9.2% |
| Nov 2025 | $3.06 | $2.65 | +15.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $3.63 | $3.37 | +7.7% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
18
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-0.6%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+4
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$129
Put wall看跌期权墙
$120
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$131
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$125
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$120
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
-$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-7.3%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-0.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $95M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$1.0M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 3
Days to cover回补天数
4.6
Short interest change空头变化
+10.6%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。