Americas Brokers & Crypto First quarter of crypto estimate upgrades since 4Q25 EPS

Equity Research 7 October 2026 | 5:27AM EDT

First quarter of crypto estimate upgrades since 4Q25 EPS; muted retail trading, but favorable fall seasonality ahead

In 3Q26, brokers & crypto stocks rose 11% on average, robust, and trading benefited from the removal of the James Yaro | outperforming the S&P 500 by ~5pp, driven primarily by Pattern Day Trader designation. This potentially comes Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC multiple rerating. Performance across the group ahead of a volume recovery, given more favorable fall Matthew Weng remained bifurcated, as digital asset-skewed firms seasonality, with upside optionality if IPO activity were to | significantly outperformed, while more traditional retail recover once again. Separately, crypto prices and volumes Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

brokers lagged, reflecting surging crypto volumes vs. a inflected in August/September, resulting in near and Divyam Harlalka | retail trading backdrop that underperformed historical medium-term crypto consensus earnings estimates Goldman Sachs India SPL seasonality. Investors are increasingly focused on stabilizing — these could inflect positively, if recent trends Lokesh Kumar Sangewar | longer-term growth vectors, namely blockchain revenue continue. Our normalized earnings analysis suggests ~4% Goldman Sachs India SPL and agentic commerce, although we believe upside to 2027E EPS across the group if crypto recovers to monetization remains some ways away. All in, reflecting mid-cycle levels. Finally, while we see meaningful long-term Thirukumaran R | the stronger digital asset trends and a higher market platform expansion and revenue opportunities from Goldman Sachs India SPL forward curve, we increase our 2026E/27E/28E revenue blockchain and agentic commerce, near-term monetization Tim Dikarev | across the group by 2%/3%/4% on average and for covered brokers & crypto appear more limited. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

2027E/28E adj. EPS by a median of 5%/6%. With We highlight four key themes into earnings: consensus crypto estimates positively inflecting for the first quarter since 4Q25, and valuations close to trough 1. Despite a muted 3Q26 retail trading backdrop, levels, we are more constructive on crypto companies. healthy structural growth, favorable fall seasonality, Industry retail equity trading volumes remained roughly flat and an IPO recovery could drive a near-term MoM in September after 15% declines in July and August, recovery; underperforming historical seasonality. In spite of this, 2. Sustainability of stronger digital assets activity in brokers’ structural asset and account growth remained the quarter, and potential for incremental crypto

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Goldman Sachs Americas Brokers & Crypto

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