GS DeGrasse Desk Bank Fins EPS Preview

GS DeGrasse - Desk Bank/Fins EPS Preview 7 Oct 2026 Christian DeGrasse · Goldman Sachs · Sector Specialist, FICC & Equities · with Alex Mitola (Franchise Trading) Wed 7 Oct 2026, 12:49pm ET

All references to "we/us/our" refer to the views and observations of the desk.

Financials EPS season kicks off Tuesday with JPM, C, and WFC reporting in the morning…

What’s Most in Focus for Bank EPS? • Capital Markets: How much does trading normalize after a strong 2Q26? IB outlooks – was 3Q26 just an air pocket or a signal of a more prolonged slowdown to come?

• NII: Outlooks given the sharp upward move in rates & more hawkish forward curve. Strong asset growth and fixed rate asset repricing vs rising deposit costs

• Deposit Costs: How will banks manage deposit costs given rate hike expectations and elevated deposit competition? Potential for deposit beta lag to benefit 4Q26 NIMs?

• Loan Growth: Durability in higher rate environment (with the market questioning growth & activity outlooks elsewhere)

• Expenses: Levers to pull to manage expenses amidst potentially slower near term capital markets environment vs will better NII (for asset sensitive banks) flow through to bottom line?

• Capital: Outlook for capital deployment given less excess capital, continued strong loan growth, and higher rates impacting AOCI – potential for more buyback pauses in Regionals (similar to USB) or slower pace at moneycenters?

• Credit: Benign heading into prints supportive of potential reserve releases — watching if the move in rates creates any early stress with focus on Multifamily CRE

• Consumer: What is the current state of the consumer? How have higher oil prices and rates weighed on health & spend?

• Agentic AI: What does agentic AI mean for deposits, funding costs, profitability, and customer growth? Overblown or are banks taking this seriously?

Other things we are watching throughout EPS season.. • Rate Impact: How is the rise in interest rates impacting activity, with a particular focus on Capital Markets, Sponsor Activity (both realization & deployment), CRE Transactions, and Debt Issuance.

• Addressing the Agent in the room: Will market debate around implications of AI agents (Retail Brokers & Wealth, Personal Insurance, Banks, Customer Acquisition, etc) get addressed on Earnings calls?

• AI: Latest upsides on how Financial institutions are thinking about AI Risks (competition) & Opportunities (margin expansion, customer growth)

• Credit Deployment: What’s the pace of credit deployment & management fee growth into 2027?

• Market Structure: How are companies thinking about tokenization (institutional adoption?), and any change in view regarding new products (event contracts, perpetual futures)?

• Boutique Investment Banks: Any greenshoots in pipelines (sentiment is low), and

• Fintech: Can the higher rate outlook impact the growth trajectory or GoS margins?

• Crypto-Trading: Is activity inflecting or recent pickup just a flash in the pan?

• P&C Insurance: Updates on pricing amidst soft cycle conditions (signs of broadening out?), how will market balance near term book value strength vs long term pricing overhang?

• Insurance Brokers: Are organic growth estimates at the brokers in a good place (have they digested soft cycle conditions?); Any more potential for AI-driven upside to targets (following WTW last qtr)?

• Life Insurance: How is the changing macro environment impacting earnings, any updates to M&A; Update on trends in disability

Singles.. • BAC… Any NII upside updated for the rate curve and can this flow into operating leverage? Trading outlook relative to peers

• WFC… Focus on near term NIM (+ Deposit costs) and where FY26 NII settles out vs $50bn target

• JPM… How’s the right way to think about 2027 operating leverage? Will we get clarity around both NII and expenses or just one piece of the picture?

• C… How do frontloaded 2H26 investments affect 2027 expenses/efficiency/returns?

• AMG… Is tax-aware growth slowing given recent headlines (Treasury, Custody)

• AMP… Focus on margin & growth profile going forward (& what this means for broader competition) given press reports about potential retention packages

• SCHW… Higher rate tailwinds to NII vs potential…