Americas Capital Markets Round tripped

Equity Research 2 October 2026 | 5:06AM EDT

Round-tripped; Rates weigh on Cap Mkts backdrop into 3Q earnings

Rising risks from higher rates on capital markets activity and re-emergence of Alexander Blostein, CFA | terminal value debates (Agentic cash sorting/ Advisory fees for Wealth Mgrs, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC On-chain trading for Exchanges) drove material reversal in stock performance Aditya Sharma, CFA half-way through 3Q, erasing earlier gains and leaving Alts, Wealth Brokers, and | Exchanges at 20-30% P/E discounts relative to history (with Alt multiples historical Goldman Sachs India SPL trough levels). Among the three sub-sectors, we see Exchanges/Market Structure Michael Vinci | stocks as most out of sync with fundamentals - solid volumes in 3Q (outside slower Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC retail), easy comps into 4Q and long-term tokenization / other structural benefits not contemplated in current multiples (ICE and TW top picks here). For Alts, we see the Anthony Corbin | rates-driven reversal (20% swing in stocks in 2H of the qtr) meaningfully Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC overshooting the low-to-mid single digits EPS risks in 2027 from slower activity Mason Levy (though with wider dispersion among stocks - BX and CG having potentially more | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Carry/PRE risks vs consensus). That said, we don’t expect much impact to FRE and still see 15% avg mgmt fee CAGR across the group through 2028. Wealth firms should benefit from higher rates, though most will get offset by a continued drag on cash balances. Traditional Managers and Trust Banks seem least controversial - most Trad Mgrs continue to face steady to improving organic growth (outside of MF Active Equities), margin expansion and capital returns; Trust Banks should benefit from incremental NII tailwinds further boosting operating leverage prospects. Top ideas into 3Q include - TPG, STEP, APO among Alts ; BLK and BEN in Trad Mgrs, TW and ICE in Exchanges, BNY/STT in Trusts, and LPLA in Wealth.

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Goldman Sachs Americas Capital Markets

Stock Performance vs. Fundamentals 3

Sector Views and Key Stock Ideas into 3Q26 EPS 9

EPS revisions, Price Targets, Multiples and Risks 54