ETF Market Pulse Week

ETF Market Pulse Week 1 – August 2026: The New Rate-Cut Trade, Gold Miner ETFs Move to Center Stage

Jérémy Cadenat  Gold Miner ETFs Ride the Gold Breakout: A weak US July payrolls report, showing a loss of 23k jobs versus expectations for a 79k increase, reinforced potentials for policy Sebastien Lemaire easing, driving yields lower which provided a significant catalyst for Gold ETFs. Moreover, easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz also helped reduce energy- Lalatendu Khandagiri driven inflation concerns, reinforcing the case for a more accommodative central bank policy backdrop. The rally was further supported by continued central bank demand, Sunil Vaderahalli Dayananda with the People's Bank of China adding roughly 20 tonnes of gold reserves in July, marking its 21st consecutive month of purchases. While Gold ETFs gained roughly 7.3%, Gold Miner ETFs significantly outperformed, rising around 22%. This outperformance reflects gold miners’s operating leverage: with production costs largely fixed, higher gold prices translate into a disproportionately larger increase in earnings and cash flow. As a result, even a modest increase in the gold price can drive a much larger expansion in profit margins.

 US Growth ETFs Rally as AI Earnings Meet Fed Easing Hopes: US Growth ETFs outperformed this week as a strong earnings season reinforced confidence in the AI theme. Palantir surged around 29% following earnings, after reporting +93% YoY revenue growth and raising its full-year revenue guidance to $ 8.15bn. Lower rate expectations provided an additional catalyst for US Growth ETFs. Following the weak July payrolls report, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell during last week, boosting long- duration assets. Since US Growth ETFs derive a larger share of their valuation from earnings expected far in the future, lower discount rates increase the present value of those cash flows and support higher equity valuations.

 Private Credit ETFs Bounce Back: Private Credit ETFs moved higher last week as earnings from key industry participants helped lighten concerns around credit quality and borrower stress. Blue Owl, Apollo and Sixth Street reported resilient performance, while news that Ares was leading a $2.2bn direct lending package to support MedImpact's acquisition of Medical Card System highlighted continued demand for private credit solutions. The weak July payrolls report reduces refinancing pressure on borrowers, improves debt-servicing capacity and supports deal activity.

 Energy Exploration ETFs Weaken on Rising Supply Expectations: Energy Exploration & Production ETFs moved lower last week as oil prices came under pressure from a more constructive supply outlook. Reports suggesting progress toward a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduced concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern oil exports, while increasing expectations that additional Iranian crude could return to global markets. The move was reinforced after OPEC+ approved another production increase for September, further strengthening expectations of a better-supplied oil market. Given the strong sensitivity of Energy Exploration ETFs to oil prices, the prospect of rising supply weighed on earnings expectations and drove underperformance across the sector.

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Softer US Jobs Data Fuels a Risk-On Rebound Led by Gold, US Growth and Japan ETF weekly performance heatmap across selected asset classes Weekly USD total returns (%) | US and Europe‑domiciled long‑only ETFs (unhedged share classes) | Colors by Asset

Source: SG Cross Asset Research/ETF, Bloomberg, US Equities: SPY US, European Equities: VGK US, Japan Equities: EWJ US, EM Equities: IEMG US, US Small Caps: IWM US, US Value: VTV US, US Growth: IWF US, Short Term Rates: SGOV US, Govies: IGBG NA, Inflation Bonds: TIP US, IG Credit: AGG US, HY Credit: HYG US, EM Bonds: EMB US, Broad Commodities: PDBC US, Gold: GLD US, Bitcoin: IBIT US