Global Equity Market Arithmetic US versus UK shareholder returns but Momentum is still hard to ignore

GLOBAL QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH 03 August 2026

Global Equity Market Arithmetic US versus UK shareholder returns but Momentum is still hard to ignore Andrew Lapthorne My colleagues challenged me not to mention momentum in this month's GEMA. I nearly made it! Georgios Oikonomou Instead, I focused on shareholder returns. In the US, the combination of dividends and net buyback yield fell to a record low in July. Buybacks are slowing while share issuance is rising, Laura Tossan as a result of companies' seemingly insatiable appetite for AI-related capex. Across the Atlantic, the UK (up 5.2% in July) remains an anomaly with distribution yields close Hugo Cellier to record highs. Issuance is falling, buybacks are rising, and with investors still reluctant to buy UK equities, corporates have stepped in. Net buybacks are up almost 20% over the past year. Puneet Singh Then came the momentum charts. The first showed the correlation between the long and short books of a 12-month momentum strategy. Today they are moving in opposite directions. At -0.47, the correlation is at a level we have never previously observed, leading to volatile Solomon Tadesse momentum returns that doesn’t necessarily translate into overall market volatility. The second chart was equally eye-catching. A simple long/short momentum strategy within US technology stocks returned 225% in the twelve months to June. In July, it lost almost 40%. Momentum is one of the market's most powerful forces. It is also one of its most unforgiving.

Shareholder returns hit all-time lows in the US with net Despite being at record highs, the UK’s FTSE 350 is delivering buybacks now 25% from highs amid record index levels near-record levels of total distributions to shareholders.

8.0 8.0 Dividend yield 6.0 Net buyback yield Total distribution yield 4.0 6.0 2.0

-2.0 2.0 Dividends -4.0 Net Buybacks Total distribution yield 0.0 Dec-98 Dec-99 -6.0 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-25

Normally they move in tandem! 3-month rolling correlation A long/short US 12m price momentum strategy within the GICS between US price-momentum long and short Information Technology sector

Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 Jul-25 Jul-

Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant, Factset Societe Generale (“SG”) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that SG may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE APPENDIX AT THE END OF THIS REPORT FOR THE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S), IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS. ALTERNATIVELY, VISIT OUR GLOBAL RESEARCH DISCLOSURE WEBSITE

Global Equity Market Arithmetic

Market & factor index performance 4

Market P/E ratios and growth 6

Country P/E ratios and EPS growth 9

US sales, profit, and margin diffusion indicators 11

US sales, profit, and margin diffusion indicators by sector 12

YTD sector and region consensus earnings changes 13

Quarterly US, Europe, and Japan sector consensus earnings changes 14

US consensus quarterly earnings 15

Monthly factor performance (long vs short) 16

Monthly factor performance (long vs universe) 18

Monthly top and bottom 10 factor performance by region 20

Year-to-date factor performance (long vs short) 21

Year-to-date factor performance (long vs universe) 23

Year-to-date top and bottom 10 factor performance by region 25

Europe factor performance by period (long vs short) 26

Europe factor performance by period (long vs universe) 28

US factor performance by period (long vs short) 30

US factor performance by period (long vs universe) 32