JPM Europe Equity Research | Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 30 July 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting Greggs and B&M (Borja Olcese)

Bears turning into Bulls? Better risk-reward in GRG vs BME

The inflection we talked about appears evident now. We see materially more positives than negatives in Greggs’ 1H26 results. First, GRG delivered well above consensus expectations on EBIT (+23% y/y, with margins +100bps y/y, and +9% vs consensus) and PBT (+20% y/y, +4% vs consensus), also slightly ahead of our estimates. Second, GRG reiterated its FY26 profit outlook, which implies a relatively undemanding 2H, while also de-risking assumptions through lower cost inflation guidance (c2% for FY26 vs c3% previously) and reduced capex expectations of c£180mn (vs £200mn previously). Third, GRG remains in a net cash position and delivered y/y operating cash flow growth ahead of expectations, clearly flagging scope for buybacks in due course. The main negative remains the pressured volume exit rate, with +1% LFL in 2P26 (implying c-1% to - 2% volumes). That said, management sounded notably constructive on July trading, helped by receding heatwaves, and appeared more confident that LFLs can improve from here. This commentary alone drove roughly 500bps of incremental intra- day share price movement.

AFL | Jeronimo Martins (Borja Olcese) (JMT PL, OW, PT €23.00)

Margin outperformance drives valuation & earnings upside risk

Margin outperformance drives valuation & earnings upside risk. JMT delivered Biedronka 2Q LFL contraction of -1.6%, in line with expectations, while margins surprised to the upside: Biedronka margin increased over 40bps y/y (vs cons. assumptions of flat), and group margins rose 20bps y/y (vs cons. modelling a 10bps decline). The beat was supported by a 50bps improvement in gross margin, favourable mix, and continued cost control. Further, net income was flat y/y, beating the Street by 8%. Mgmt. caveated its own inflation outlook by pointing out Biedronka might stay deflationary for longer – this should no longer become a hurdle to step into the investment case, provided the sound margin delivery as MSD% volume growth underpinned earnings to a greater extent than investors were assuming and pricing in. In the context of shares down 14% YTD, we think this update will drive some re-rating off a rather low base, on top of MSD% earnings upgrades – 1H implies relatively undemanding consensus expectations for 2H, particularly given generally easier LFL comparatives coupled with headroom for further margin expansion. We reiterate our Overweight rating with a Dec-27 €23 price target (c32% upside potential).

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( July 2026 JPMORGAN

Company Research Aena (Elodie Rall) (AENA SM, N)

Aeroports de Paris (ADP) (Elodie Rall) (ADP FP, N)

See potential for shares to squeeze on better-than-expected Q2 and ERA agreement with the French State; the ART still needs to provide binding proposal though

Auto1 (Marcus Diebel) (AG1 GR, OW)

Post call Q226 - Encouraging volume commentary and GPU trends on the call, no estimates changes, remains a key pick.

BASF SE (Chetan Udeshi, CFA) (BAS GR, UW)

AFL | Danone (Celine Pannuti, CFA) (BN FP, OW)

Model update: raise EPS 26E c2%, with FY organic sales and margin well underpinned

Davide Campari-Milano NV (Celine Pannuti, CFA) (CPR IM, N)

Q2/H126 Results: H1 beat, margin upgrade to drive LSD EPS raise

Deutsche Bank (Kian Abouhossein) (DBK GR, OW)

Strong revenue performance driving earnings upgrades: remain OW

E.ON (Pavan Mahbubani, CFA) (EOAN GR, OW)

FY26 guidance well underpinned (1H26 Preview)

EDP (Javier Garrido) (EDP PL, N)