JPM Europe Equity Research | Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 16 September 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting Italian Banks (Delphine Lee)

Milan tour feedback & M&A scenarios - resuming coverage on Banco BPM with Neutral

We recently organised a financials tour to Milan. We met with UniCredit (CEO and CFO), Intesa Sanpaolo (CFO), Banco BPM (CFO), Unipol (CEO) and Fineco (CEO). The message was reassuring on revenue trends in Q3 with a continuation of the strong commercial momentum and resilient client activity despite the August seasonality. However, the main focus remains on M&A. UCG is mainly focused on CBK governance and implementing the strategy, with significant potential for market share gain in Italy from the M&A disruption. BAMI viewed MPS’s unsolicited bid as complex and lacking a premium, while commenting that a well-structured Credit Agricole deal could create value. We estimate that Cred Ag could only offer up to a 10% premium in a takeover scenario, but a reverse scenario with Cred Ag taking a larger stake could be accretive, especially for BAMI shareholders, but the challenge is that any stake increase would require government approval. We resume coverage on Banco BPM with Neutral - The bank has an attractive client base in Northern Italy with valuable assets such as Anima, and management is executing well with solid operating performance. However, the stock already trades at a 16% premium to the sector and 20% premium to UCG, and valuation multiples already largely reflect franchise quality in our view. While we see a modest catalyst from higher payouts, we also see other banks including UCG also offering attractive yields trading at cheaper multiples. Within Italian banks, we continue to prefer UCG (OW) with attractive risk reward, strong profitability and attractive yield with upside to consensus expectations and undiscounted CBK synergies. Note that we are restricted on Intesa Sanpaolo and Unipol.

Global Investment Banks (Kian Abouhossein)

Read-across from US banks’ comments on 3Q IB performance - room for potential upgrades

US Banks (BofA, Citi and JPMC) this week have commented on Markets and IB Fee trends so far in 3Q with the YoY guidance for Markets (FICC+Equities Sales & Trading) revenue ranging from relatively flat (BofA) to up mid-single-digit % (Citi) to up mid- to-high teens % (JPMC). We forecast 3Q markets revenues +10% YoY for Global IBs in our coverage, with US +18% on average and Europe +2% on average. We note that September, where we still have 2 weeks to go, is usually the make or break month for IB revenues in 3Q and hence we see the current guidance by bank managements as likely building an element of conservatism with upside surprise potential when the banks report 3Q earnings. We expect Equities YoY outperformance to continue in 3Q (+21% YoY in USD) for Global IBs in our coverage, despite some normalization (-27% QoQ) from a record 2Q. For FICC, we forecast YoY revenues to be flat in 3Q and down -13% QoQ for Global IBs in our coverage. IB Fees 3QTD, based on Dealogic data, are tracking -9% YoY with ECM +14%, DCM -12% and M&A revenues -15% YoY. We note that IB fee data, especially in advisory, can be lumpy depending on the timing of deal closures and associated fee bookings. Overall, we maintain our positive view on IBs and continue to expect an ongoing strong performance with the caveat that 2H is usually seasonally slower than 1H and 1H 26 has been exceptionally strong, especially in Equities +41% YoY for Global IBs in our coverage. Our current forecasts assume FICC -22% and Equities -24% in 2H 26E vs. 1H 26, leading to markets revenues -23% for Global IBs in our coverage HoH in 2H 26E.

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( September 2026 JPMORGAN

AFL | AstraZeneca (Richard Vosser) (AZN LN, OW)

Delivery of 2027 pipeline should improve confidence in Astra’s ability to continue to grow beyond 2030

We see AZN as offering the richest runway of pipeline newsflow in the sector over the next 18 months, including the Datroway readouts in 1L lung cancer (AVANZAR in 4Q 2026 and TL07 in 2027) and camizestrant in adjuvant breast cancer (CAMBRIA- 1).…