JPM Europe Equity Research Today’s Morning Meeting

Europe First to Market 31 July 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting European Quant Strategy (Khuram Chaudhry)

Style Investing: 5 Signals the Quality Trade is About to Turn.

Value & Quality Up; Momentum, Risk & Growth Down. Beneath the calm headline indices (MXWO just 3% off highs), a violent style rotation is underway: Korea’s Kospi is down 40% and the SOX 30%. July flipped YTD leadership on its head: L/S Risk (-7.2%), Momentum (-9.3%) and Growth (-0.5%) reversed sharply, while Value (+4.8%) and long suffering Quality finally caught a bid. J.P. Morgan's European QMI rotated into ‘Contraction’ phase of the cycle last month. Elsewhere, the USA, China, Asia Pac ex-Japan and GEM are all softening into ‘Slowdown’, confirming the global macro backdrop at risk of reporting a disappointment in growth expectations. We believe this rotation is only in its early innings: we are overweight Value, Quality & Low Volatility; and underweight Growth & Risk. This month, we focus on five reasons investors should take a closer look at the merits behind Quality and drill down on why Momentum is drawing down.

Adyen (Sandeep Deshpande) (ADYEN NA, OW)

Given market cautiousness, meeting expectations would be a positive catalyst for the stock.

Adyen customers that have reported set a favorable stage for Adyen results: In this note we collate the revenue/bookings of disclosed listed Adyen customers that have already reported results. These customers grew 16.6% in 2Q. In the past 4 quarters, Adyen has outperformed listed customer growth by 7.7% to 11.7% or an average of 9.4%. So if the growth at the non- listed companies and those that have not reported thus far is similar, then Adyen could grow processed volume by as much as 27% which would mean that even if take rates decline slightly, Adyen should be in a position to meet or beat guidance. Adyen has guided FY26 revenue to grow 20-22% YoY. The co. grew sales at cc by 20% YoY and thus the market expects growth to be slightly higher in 2Q and the data we have gathered indicates that customer growth is supportive of market expectations.

AFL | Leonardo (David H Perry, CFA) (LDO IM, OW)

Q2 26 EBITA beats 5%; new FY26 FCF guidance 10% above consensus

Our Take: After close on July 30th, LDO reported Q2 26 EBITA 5% ahead of company-compiled consensus, but FCF was slightly below consensus (Table 1). It also raised its FY26 guidance for EBITA and FCF. While the new 2026 EBITA guidance is only 1% above consensus, the new FCF guide is 10% ahead. LDO remains one of our top picks in the European Defence sector. We see scope for further EPS upgrades from (1) Ongoing self-help; (2) US exposure (c.23% of FY25 revenue); (3) Middle East exposure; and (4) potential corporate activity (in Aerostructures and Space).

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (Neil Green, CFA) (URW FP, OW)

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research ( July 2026 JPMORGAN

The best of both worlds – part 2: Increasing PT to €120

Retail property is standing out positively so far this results round with growing rents, tenant sales and, in URW’s case, shopping centre vacancy hitting its lowest level in almost a decade. We continue to believe URW offers the best of both worlds in listed real estate – here & here – a high sustainable yield (c.9% on earnings), inflation-type earnings growth with (even) stronger dividend growth as payout normalizes. Increasingly, too, their US exposure is standing out positively – a geographically unique selling point for URW vs. peers. We refresh estimates and see upside risks building for future earnings. Our PT moves to €120 (€115) and we remain OW.