JPM International Market Intell Morning Briefing

- MOMO MIA, here we go again! Tech & MOMO bounce extending further today – APAC catching up (record foreign buying in Korea) and US/EA futures pointing to another strong session.

- Similar to the way down, moves felt technical yesterday. Situational Awareness’ efforts to raise fresh capital were seen lending credibility to the technical narrative behind the MOMO drawdown.

- Positioning Intel’s Tactical Takes (below) flagged extreme de-grossing (3d one of the biggest since 2020) and all 3 signals on their ‘what would it take to get bullish MOMO’ checklist flagged green.

- Asia Tech returns! Unitree launches $620mn STAR Market IPO; Korea to inject $14bn for Sov Wealth Fund’s AI investments; DeepSeek developing massive data center. US Tech responding – OpenAI cut prices for two of its GPT 5.6 models given cost pressures.

- All of this means we should a) scale down factor hedges and b) short-dated upside via call spreads/ratios (which should capture also vol compression) on AI/Tech. What lowers conviction? Absence of Catastrophizing (e.g. Oil >$200/bbl in March, Tariffs = Global Recession in Apr-25 etc.).

- Meanwhile, EU Macro MOMO extends - GDP printed at 1.8%ar for Q2 (higher than US), and sentiment continues to rise. Econ makes key observation that energy shock dynamics and passthrough differ from 2022 RU/UA shock – and could have implications for ECB projections too.

- Mislav is out with his weekly earnings tracker. The differential between US and European earnings growth has narrowed this quarter, at both market cap and median level

- Keep an eye on FX – reported yen intervention failed to sustain gains into BOJ meeting today. Meanwhile, USD bouncing back after Fed selloff & DXY breaking below 100.

- Week Ahead Catalysts incl. S&P Global F PMIs; China Trade & Foreign Reserves; US ISM, Unemployment, NFPs. Key tech reporters: PLTR, AMD, SNDK.