JPM International Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing

20 SECONDS: Escalating Strikes in Middle East Pushing Oil Higher. FX in Focus Last Week (Yen & Dollar). Global Macro. Key Catalysts This Week (incl. US CPI & ECB). New Positioning Intel.

• Escalating US & Iran strikes over weekend pushing oil prices higher. US’ pressure on Iran taking increasing toll - Reuters reports that while more energy is flowing to international markets through SoH, US blockade of Iranian oil exports has entirely cut off Tehran's main source of revenue.

• APAC equities higher this morning, led by a broad rebound in tech/AI and semis on renewed “Astra / GPT-6” compute-demand optimism vs EU futures marginally lower – US closed for holiday.

• FX in focus last week. In Japan, the prospect of fresh policy adjustments led to +4-sigma USD/JPY put demand.

• Meera remains constructive USD (still undershooting rates / Fed re-pricing substantively) and has advised against leaning into debasement narrative after

Treasury buyback announcement. In line with our call to tactically take profit from Gold as narrative intensity and positioning neared highs.

• Global macro continues to trend higher, with risks skewed to the upside of Econ’s 2.6%ar 2H26 forecast (August global PMI tracking 3.1%ar growth).

• US NFPs another favourable sign for labour demand - but Fed speakers point to this week’s CPI report as the decisive data point for the next FOMC meeting (see Econ’s inflation deep dive here).

• In Europe, this week’s focus is on ECB (consensus & Econ expect 25bp hike). Greg expects Lagarde’s “framework guidance” (via staff forecasts) to show a clear case for raising rates further.

• Germany’s AfD won regional election in Saxony-Anhalt (as expected), but failed to secure a majority.

• Key catalysts this week incl. China Foreign Reserves; Trade, PPI, CPI. US Treasury begins expanded buybacks of longer-dated bonds; Republicans open their first national midterm convention in Dallas (Trump and JD Vance to speak); BOJ Board member Masu speaks; Japan PPI; ADBE, ORCL Earnings; US CPI, US UMich Consumer Sentiment.

• Positioning Intel flags potential themes arising over the past week: further HF re-grossing (+1.3z increase in the past week, the highest since late June); a pause in US Health Care, and a bottoming of Cyclicals vs. Defensives.