JPM JPM Chips for Brunc

Joshua Meyers - Specialist Sales - US TMT AC ( North America Specialist Sales JPMORGAN J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 31 July 2026

AMD Bars Help?; Positioning (Hitting Bottom?); AMZN Thoughts; AI Capex; AAPL; Mediatek Optimism (but TPU v9 slip?); SIMO Joshua Meyers

Can I ask for your help? I have been too slow in surveying AMD Buyside Expectations. Please help me catch up by sharing your views! I’ll provide regular updates to those who participate…

• F2Q26 Revenue ($11.2b Guide; $11.3b Bberg): • F2Q26 Data Center Revenue (v. $6.55b Bberg): • F2Q26 GM (56% Guide; 56.05% Bberg): • F2Q26 EPS (v. $1.63 Bberg): • F3Q26 Revenue Guide ($12.48b Bberg): • F3Q26 GM Guide (56.2% Bberg): • Your F27 & F28 EPS (v. $13.66 & $18.96 Bberg):

Importantly, JPM Positioning Intel yesterday afternoon shared Signs We're Reaching The Bottom... Last week I warned in writing and in my calls/meetings with many of you that John Schlegel in JPM PI worried that the -0.7z selloff was not yet big enough to help us put in a bottom (he wanted something between 1~2z). The SALP drama compounded that "too shallow" pullback to take us much lower still... It's been a painful two weeks. Team Head John Schlegel weighs in again today with a much different view: "the past 3 days have been extreme in the US (each 2-3z de-gross days), putting the 3d amount of gross reduced at one of the biggest since 2020, only behind late Jan ’21 (retail squeeze) and mid-Nov ’22 (low CPI-induced squeeze)."

"...we’re now seeing multiple signs of extremes that suggest that the de-gross and momentum sell-off could abate very soon. Updating the 3 points from our prior note on 'What would get us tactically more bullish on Momentum?'…

• 6m z-score of combined HF positioning + factor performance hit a -1 to -2z level: it’s now at -2z • Strong de-grossing among HFs: N. Am. hit >3z de-grossing on a 5d basis and 2z on a 4wk basis…in addition gross flows tend to trough seasonally in late July/early Aug) • Strong selling of Momentum by HFs: flows have turned more negative and are -2.2z on a 20d basis

Joshua Meyers - Specialist Sales - US TMT AC ( North America Specialist Sales JPMORGAN JPM: Chips for Brunch - AMD Bars J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Help?; Positioning (Hitting Bottom?); AMZN Thoughts; AI Capex; AAPL; Mediatek Optimism (but TPU v9 slip?); SIMO 31 July 2026

• HF crowding performance took a big dip in tech (longs -30%, shorts -11%), a reversal of the hugely +ve spread in June • Sector flows show reversals: in line with the MTD rotation, US Semis have seen -2.6z net selling over the past 5d and -1.1z over the past 20d (mostly longs) vs. Software (JP2SOF) at +1.6z net buying 5d and +3.3z 20d (mostly covering). Positioning in US Semis (based on L/S ratio) is now down to the 60th %-tile on a 12m basis (though 95th since ’18) vs. Software at the 27th / 3rd %-tile • Korea positioning has lightened up: The l/s ratio had climbed to 6x (from 2.4x at the start of the year)... But the l/s ratio has retraced to 2.8x (80th %-tile) and net exposures have pulled back ~60% from highs (vs. Kospi down ~40% over the same period) though net exposures are still +4.5z above average since 2018."

And in his daily, APAC Thematics Spec Matt See shares AMZN CEO Andy Jassy’s key overnight comments helping put to bed AI monetization concerns.

• On AWS growth “AWS is booming right now… Revenue growth of 37% y/y and accelerating for the 5th straight quarter, our fastest growth in 18 quarters back to when AWS was less than half its current size… Our backlog stands at $496bn, growing triple digits y/y… AWS is now a $169bn ARR business which would place it 24 on the Fortune 500 list if was a standalone business… Our chips business is also now over $25bn in size, growing triple-digit y/y”. • On Amazon capex “We now believe we will spend $220bn in capex in 26 (from $200bn)… At this level of spend & higher, we have clear line-of-sight to strong financial returns… For servers and networking equipment, it takes a little less than 3 years to breakeven on that investment... Servers currently have a useful life of at least 5-6 years and most of our AI capacity is contracted for at least 5 year terms… For data centers, which have >30 year…