JPM JPM US Market Intell

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF • TECH EARNINGS PREVIEW – META, MSFT, and QCOM • TRADING THE FED – Mkt Intel scenario analysis • FED DAY BREAKEVENS – Rates Trader Vivek Nangia • EARNINGS: DAILY MACRO READ-THROUGH – Ellen updates us on results from yesterday • US MKT INTEL VIEW – Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu • GLOBAL MKT INTEL – Our Monthly Thematic Pulse is here; we look at Global Tech, Semis, and Flows across Thematics. • NEW DA&A PODCAST – Momentum vs. fundamentals in the AI trade: Insights from BlackRock (here).

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES • SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.2%, RTY +0.2%. WTI +356bps at $82.08, NatGas -64bps to $2.65, UK NatGas +179bps to £1.4415, Gold +12bps to $4,035, Silver +123bps to $57.86, 10Y @ 4.614%, and VIX @ 18.28. • US: Futures are higher, yields are higher, and USD is lower as the Fed decision comes later today. Feroli sees the Fed on hold with 2x hawkish dissents; the market is pricing a 32% chance of a hike. Overnight, Korea / Semis took another leg lower with JPM’s Mixo Das seeing the levered ETF unwind in its 9th inning (90% complete). With hyperscaler earnings today / tmrw, perhaps we finally establish a floor within the Tech trade. Futs are rallying from overnight lows with all 3 major indices in the green, with Tech flipping from laggard to leader. Semis are higher pre-mkt with Mag7 mixed. Defensives are leading Cyclicals (ex-Tech & Energy) with the Energy bid returning on news of renewed attacks in the Middle East. Elsewhere, bond yields are up 1-2bp as the curve flattens, USD is weaker, and cmdtys are bid led by Energy and Metals. The macro focus is on the Fed. • EU/UK: Major markets are all lower with Spain the biggest laggard. Regional bond yields are higher as curves bear flatten. Energy, Tariff plays, Software are among the top baskets with Luxury, Defense, and Defensives lagging. Thematically, ResVol / Momentum are leading with Quality lagging;

Cyclicals over Defensives, Value over Growth. China, Japan, HK led the APAC session with Korea and Taiwan under pressure. Our Trading Desk ended the session better to buy in Tech. UKX +0.0%, SX5E -0.6%, SXXP -0.3%, DAX -0.4%. CSI +0.7%, HSI +2.0%, NKY -1.5%, ASX +1.0%, KOSPI - 6.0%.

CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD) • US MACRO DATA: Mtge Applications at 7am ET. Fed Decision at 2pm ET. • US EARNINGS: ADP, ALGN, APH, AR, ARCC, ARI, ARXS, AUR, AVTR, AWK, BANC, BG, BIIB, BOOT, BSX, CBRE, SHRW, CLH, CMG, CSL, CTSH, CVNA, EA, EQIX, EVR, FICO, FLEX, FLS, FMC, FORM, FTAI, FTNT, GD, GEHC, GNRC, GTLS, HAYW, HOOD, HUM, HXL, IONS, JCI, LHX, LII, LRCX, LXP, META, MGM, MOD, MSFT, ODFL, ORLY, PCOR, PG, PSA, PTEN, PUMP, PYPL, QCOM, SBUX, SFM, SITE, SMG, SOFI, TENB, TYL, VFC, VICI, VKTX, VMC, CRSK, VRT, VTR, WAY, WING, WM, WNC, WWD. • GLOBAL MACRO DATA: UK – Money Supply, Mtge Approvals

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE Yesterday was another day where the market cratered after the open only to be bought but led higher in sectors with light positioning (Consumers, HC, and Mag7) as the AI / Semis trade continued to unravel. This may be the early stages of a broaden / rotation away from Tech, which has not materialized in positioning data but with Software and Internet plays seeing significant outperformance over the last month, the question is what, if anything, can Mag7 / Semis earnings do to reverse this trend. Separately, chatter surrounding the US / Iran returning to their MoU may shift Energy to laggard status; WTI is now down ~$13, ~15%, over the last 3 sessions.

INT’L MKT INTEL: THEMATIC FLOW TRACKER