JPM Oil Markets Weekly

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 30 July 2026

Oil Markets Weekly From chokepoint to checkbook

Iran’s approach to the Strait of Hormuz is often framed in binary terms—either the Global Commodities Research waterway is kept open or closed. Increasingly, however, Iran appears to be Natasha Kaneva pursuing a different strategy: not closing the strait, but regulating its use. ( Precedence suggests that the strategy could be legally defensible (Port Authority, Lyuba Savinova 19 May 2026). Working jointly with Oman, which shares jurisdiction over the ( Strait, Iran could argue that vessels transiting the strait should pay not for the right to pass, but for specific services rendered, such as navigational safety, vessel traffic Artem Fakhretdinov ( management, security escorts, emergency response, and environmental protection. By structuring the measure as a service fee rather than a transit toll, and JPMorgan Chase Bank NA by coordinating with Oman as the other littoral state, Iran could propose a legal framework that appears consistent with international maritime law. The objective would be to secure at least tacit support from the United Nations and the International Maritime Organization by emphasizing that the charges are non- discriminatory, linked to identifiable services, and intended to enhance the safety and environmental integrity of one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.

What makes this strategy particularly intriguing is that it is neither legally novel nor without precedent.

The key reference point is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the principal body of international law governing how ships navigate the world’s seas and oceans. Adopted in 1982 and in force since 1994, it sets out the rights and responsibilities of coastal and maritime states, establishing baseline rules on sovereignty, navigation, resource development, and dispute resolution. As of January 2026, 170 of the UN’s 193 member states had ratified the treaty, including Russia, China, and the European Union. The United States has neither signed nor ratified UNCLOS—having never secured the two-thirds Senate majority required for ratification—but generally accepts most of its navigational provisions as customary international law. Iran has signed UNCLOS but has not ratified it.

UNCLOS also draws a bright line between artificial canals and natural waterways. Operators of artificial canals such as the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal are entitled to levy transit tolls, because these are sovereign, man-made infrastructures. Natural international straits are governed differently. As a general rule, coastal states may not charge ships merely for exercising their right of passage. However, Article 26 of the UNCLOS explicitly permits coastal states to charge non-discriminatory fees for specific services rendered to ships. Importantly, the concept is already reflected in practice. Several states already operate versions of this service-fee model for charging for navigation- and safety- related services rather than for passage itself.

Turkey, for example, has broad regulatory powers in the Turkish Straits and can charge for services under the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits. Today, Turkey charges a Suezmax oil tanker approximately $130,000 for a round-trip passage, which is equivalent to just $0.13 per barrel. Denmark and

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Natasha Kaneva AC Global Markets Strategy ( July 2026 JPMORGAN

Sweden likewise provide and charge for specific services in the Danish Straits, including pilotage, tug assistance, icebreaking, vessel traffic services, and port and anchorage services. Notably, Denmark’s Pilotage Act makes pilotage mandatory for vessels carrying hazardous cargo—such as oil, chemicals, or gases—or more than 5,000 metric tons of bunker oil. Russia has also imposed fees on commercial vessels along the Northern Sea Route, arguing the charges cover the operational costs of icebreaker escorts, navigational permits, and ice pilotage required to keep the route navigable. The fees are set unilaterally by the Russian government and are…