JPM US Market Intell | Morning Briefing

· MKT UPDATES – Tariffs, PMIs Preview, JPM Spec sales on Intel earnings.

· US MKT INTEL VIEW – Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

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· US MKT INTEL’S VIEWS & THEMES note for July is here.

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

· SPX +0.3%, NDX +0.2%, RTY +0.3%. WTI -357bps at $88.90, NatGas -89bps to $2.89, UK NatGas +92bps to £1.5083, Gold +10bps to $4,054, Silver +126bps to $58.32, 10Y @ 4.683%, and VIX @ 18.64.

· US: Futures are higher given the decline in oil prices overnight. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly higher, led by TSLA (+1.5%), MSFT (+1.1%), and GOOG/L (+1.1%). Bond yields are 0–3bp lower, led by the front end of the curve: 2y and 10y are 2.3bp and 1.2bp lower, respectively. The most notable price action was the 3.4% decline in WTI overnight despite relatively quiet macro headlines since midnight. Base metals are lower, while precious metals rallied; silver +1.4%.

· EU/UK: Major markets are all higher, led by Spain and Germany. Eurozone PMI printed 51.9 vs. 50.2 survey and 50.0 prior, given the upside surprise in both manufacturing and services. Thematically, we are seeing an “everything rally” in the European market; most of the D1 baskets were in the green, with notable outperformance coming from Software (+2.6%), Ceasefire (+1.3%), Electrification (+1.0%), Momentum Short (+0.7%), and Cyclicals (+0.6%).

· US MACRO DATA: PMI-Mfg, PMI-Srvcs and PMI-Composite at 9.45am ET. New Home Sales at 10am ET. Kansas City Fed Services Activity at 11am ET. Building Permits (revision). Section 122 Tariff is set to expire. · US EARNINGS: AXP, BAH, CHTR, FHB, FIX, HCA, NEE, RPT, SLB, SXT, TCBK, THC, VZ · GLOBAL MACRO DATA: (Germany) GfK Consumer Confidence at 2am ET. (UK) Retail Sales at 2am ET. (France) PMIs at 3:15am ET. (Germany) PMIs at 3:30am ET. (Eurozone) PMIs at 4am ET. (UK) PMIs at 4:30am ET. (Canada) IP at 8:30am ET.

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

Futs are up modestly this morning amid a 3% decline in oil prices. While headlines since midnight have largely been quiet, the decline in oil may point to some anticipation into the weekend and profit-taking given the 9% rally in oil WTD. Elsewhere on macro, the tariff updates were largely in line with expectations and consistent with the prior level. All eyes on global PMIs today: earlier this morning European PMIs surprised to the upside for both Mfg and Srvcs. Feroli (here) expects PMI-Mfg to print 55.0 vs. 53.9 prior and PMI-Srvcs to print 51.5 vs. 51.2 prior, given the positive regional reports recently.